Forest structural properties largely govern surface fluxes of moisture, energy, and momentum that strongly affect regional climate and hydrology. Forest structural properties are greatly shaped by forest management activities, especially in the Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland). Insight into transient developments in forest structure in response to management intervention is therefore essential to understanding the role of forest management in mitigating regional climate change. The aim of this study is to present a simple grid-based framework – the Fennoscandic Forest State Simulator (F2S2) -- for predicting time-dependent forest structural trajectories in a manner compatible with land models employed in offline or asynchronously coupled climate and hydrological research. F2S2 enables the prescription of future regional forest structure as a function of: i) exogenously defined scenarios of forest harvest intensity; ii) forest management intensity; iii) climate forcing. We demonstrate its application when applied as a stand-alone tool for forecasting three alternative future forest states in Norway that differ with respect to background climate forcing, forest harvest intensity (linked to two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)), and forest management intensity. F2S2 captures impacts of climate forcing and forest management on general trends in forest structural development over time, and while climate is the main driver of longer-term forest structural dynamics, the role of harvests and other management-driven effects cannot be overlooked. To our knowledge this is the first paper presenting a method to map forest structure in space and time in a way that is compatible with land surface or hydrological models employing sub-grid tiling.

中文翻译：

---

一个简单的基于网格的框架，用于模拟与 Fennoscandia 瞬态森林管理情景相关的森林结构轨迹

森林结构特性在很大程度上控制着水分、能量和动量的地表通量，它们强烈影响区域气候和水文。森林结构特性在很大程度上受到森林管理活动的影响，尤其是在芬诺斯坎迪亚（挪威、瑞典和芬兰）。因此，洞察森林结构响应管理干预的瞬态发展对于理解森林管理在缓解区域气候变化中的作用至关重要。本研究的目的是提出一个简单的基于网格的框架——Fennoscandic 森林状态模拟器 (F2S2)——以与离线或异步耦合气候和水文研究中采用的土地模型兼容的方式预测随时间变化的森林结构轨迹. F2S2 使未来区域森林结构的处方成为以下函数的函数：i) 外生定义的森林采伐强度情景；ii) 森林经营强度；iii) 气候强迫。我们展示了其作为独立工具应用于预测挪威未来三个替代森林状态时的应用，这些状态在背景气候强迫、森林采伐强度（与两个共享社会经济途径 (SSP) 相关）和森林管理方面有所不同强度。F2S2 捕捉气候强迫和森林管理随时间推移对森林结构发展总体趋势的影响，虽然气候是长期森林结构动态的主要驱动力，但收获和其他管理驱动的影响的作用不容忽视。