Boko Haram has caused nearly 40,000 casualties in Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad, becoming one of the deadliest Jihadist organisations in recent history. At its current rate, Boko Haram takes part in more than two events each day, taking the lives of nearly 11 people daily. Yet, little is known concerning Boko Haram’s internal structure, organisation, and its mobility.Here, we propose a novel technique to uncover the internal structure of Boko Haram based on the sequence of events in which the terrorist group takes part. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) gives the location and time of nearly 3,800 events in which Boko Haram has been involved since the organisation became violent 10 years ago. Using this dataset, we build an algorithm to detect the fragmentation of Boko Haram into multiple cells, assuming that travel costs and reduced familiarity with unknown locations limit the mobility of individual cells.Our results suggest that the terrorist group has a very high level of fragmentation and consists of at least 50–60 separate cells. Our methodology enables us to detect periods of time during which Boko Haram exhibits exceptionally high levels of fragmentation, and identify a number of key routes frequently travelled by separate cells of Boko Haram where military interventions could be concentrated.

中文翻译：

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通过移动模式发现博科圣地的内部结构

博科圣地组织已在尼日利亚，尼日尔，喀麦隆和乍得造成近40,000人伤亡，成为最近历史上最致命的圣战组织之一。按照目前的速度，Boko Haram每天参加两次以上的活动，每天夺去近11人的生命。然而，对于博科圣地的内部结构，组织及其流动性知之甚少，在此，我们提出了一种新技术，根据恐怖组织参与的事件序列来揭示博科圣地的内部结构。武装冲突地点和事件数据项目（ACLED）的数据提供了自10年前暴力事件以来Boko Haram参与的近3,800个事件的位置和时间。使用此数据集，我们构建了一种算法来检测Boko Haram分裂成多个细胞的过程，假定旅行费用和对未知地点的不熟悉会限制单个牢房的流动。我们的结果表明，恐怖组织的碎片化程度很高，至少由50-60个独立牢房组成。我们的方法使我们能够检测出博科圣地表现出异常高水平的分裂时期，并确定博科圣地的各个单元经常在其中集中军事干预的许多关键路线。