Crocodilians are distributed widely through the tropics and subtropics, and several species pose a substantial threat to human life. This has important implications for human safety and crocodilian conservation. Understanding the drivers of crocodilian attacks on people could help minimize future attacks and inform conflict management. Crocodilian attacks follow a seasonal pattern in many regions, but there has been limited analysis of the relationship between attack occurrence and fine-scale contemporaneous environmental conditions. We use methods from environmental niche modelling to explore the relationships between attacks on people and abiotic predictors at a daily temporal resolution for the Nile crocodile Crocodylus niloticus in South Africa and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), and the American alligator Alligator mississippiensis in Florida, USA. Our results indicate that ambient daily temperature is the most important abiotic temporal predictor of attack occurrence for both species, with attack likelihood increasing markedly when mean daily temperatures exceed 18 °C and peaking at 28 °C. It is likely that this relationship is explained partially by human propensity to spend time in and around water in warmer weather but also by the effect of temperature on crocodilian hunting behaviour and physiology, especially the ability to digest food. We discuss the potential of our findings to contribute to the management of crocodilians, with benefits for both human safety and conservation, and the application of environmental niche modelling for understanding human–wildlife conflicts involving both ectotherms and endotherms.

中文翻译：

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使用环境生态位模型研究鳄鱼袭击人类的非生物预测因子

鳄鱼广泛分布于热带和亚热带，有几个物种对人类生命构成重大威胁。这对人类安全和鳄鱼保护具有重要意义。了解鳄鱼袭击人类的驱动因素有助于最大限度地减少未来的袭击并为冲突管理提供信息。鳄鱼袭击在许多地区都遵循季节性模式，但对袭击发生与精细同时期环境条件之间关系的分析有限。我们使用环境生态位模型的方法来探索尼罗河鳄鱼在每日时间分辨率下对人类的攻击与非生物预测因子之间的关系尼罗鳄在南非和斯威士兰（以前的斯威士兰）和美洲短吻鳄密西西比短吻鳄在美国佛罗里达州。我们的研究结果表明，每日环境温度是两种物种发生攻击的最重要的非生物时间预测因子，当平均每日温度超过 18°C 并在 28°C 达到峰值时，攻击可能性显着增加。这种关系很可能部分解释为人类倾向于在温暖的天气里花时间在水中和周围，但也可以通过温度对鳄鱼狩猎行为和生理的影响，特别是消化食物的能力来解释。我们讨论了我们的研究结果对鳄鱼管理做出贡献的潜力，对人类安全和保护都有好处，以及应用环境生态位模型来理解涉及变温动物和吸热动物的人类-野生动物冲突。