ABSTRACT To explain and predict active school travel (AST), most studies have not investigated to what extent considering taste heterogeneity is an important influence on AST share. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate whether considering unobserved taste heterogeneity through mixed logit models – including random coefficient and random coefficient analysis (RCA) – materially improves/influences the AST prediction compared to a simpler model – the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The database comprises 735 valid observations. The results show that, with a 10% increase in perceived walking time to school, the MNL model predicts that the AST share would decrease by 7.8% (from 18.9% to 17.4%) while the RCA model predicts that it would decrease by 8.5% (from 18.9% to 17.3%). Thus, the expected share of AST is overestimated by MNL by one-tenth of a percentage point. Although there might be random taste variations around perceived distance to school, it seems the other important policy-sensitive variables, such as safety perception, homogeneously impacts on the AST share across households with different socioeconomic and built environment characteristics. Our empirical assessment suggests that considering taste heterogeneity does not necessarily improve the accuracy of analysis for the aggregate share of the AST concerning policy-sensitive variables.

中文翻译：

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积极的学校旅行：同质性还是异质性？就是那个问题

摘要 为了解释和预测积极的学校旅行 (AST)，大多数研究尚未调查考虑到口味异质性对 AST 份额的重要影响的程度。本研究的主要目的是评估通过混合 logit 模型（包括随机系数和随机系数分析 (RCA)）考虑未观察到的味道异质性是否会显着改善/影响 AST 预测，与更简单的模型相比，多项 logit (MNL)模型。该数据库包含 735 个有效观测值。结果表明，随着步行到学校的感知时间增加 10%，MNL 模型预测 AST 份额将下降 7.8%（从 18.9% 到 17.4%），而 RCA 模型预测它将下降 8.5% （从 18.9% 到 17.3%）。因此，MNL 将 AST 的预期份额高估了十分之一百分点。尽管感知到的学校距离可能存在随机的品味变化，但其他重要的政策敏感变量（例如安全感知）似乎对具有不同社会经济和建筑环境特征的家庭的 AST 份额产生了同质影响。我们的经验评估表明，考虑口味异质性并不一定会提高 AST 在政策敏感变量方面的总份额分析的准确性。对具有不同社会经济和建筑环境特征的家庭的 AST 份额产生同质影响。我们的经验评估表明，考虑口味异质性并不一定会提高 AST 在政策敏感变量方面的总份额分析的准确性。对具有不同社会经济和建筑环境特征的家庭的 AST 份额产生同质影响。我们的经验评估表明，考虑口味异质性并不一定会提高 AST 在政策敏感变量方面的总份额分析的准确性。