Abstract We studied the population viability of two common marsupials, Didelphis marsupialis and Didelphis virginiana, based on field data and published ecological and genetic information. Using the VORTEX v. 10. 2.6 program, a 100-year simulation was performed with 1000 iterations for five populations of D. marsupialis and six of D. virginiana. A low probability of extinction was observed in both species, particularly for D. virginiana (0.000–0.007). Population size is higher considering a metapopulation dynamics approach versus individual populations for the two marsupials: 498.25 individuals for D. marsupialis and 367.41 individuals for D. virginiana. The estimated mean genetic diversity was high for both D. marsupialis (He = 0.77–0.78) and D. virginiana (He = 0.79–0.82). The survival of both species over time could be expected to increase if a metapopulation dynamics is favored over the coming decades, despite a 1.3% loss rate of forest cover. The monitoring of population size and genetic diversity is highly recommended to validate the trends suggested by the model; this is especially true for D. marsupialis, a species associated with conserved areas that are becoming progressively less abundant. This research provides information on the responses of common mammalian species to environmental changes such as deforestation.

中文翻译：

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在本地植被不断丧失的情况下，普通有袋动物、有袋动物和美洲袋鼠的种群生存能力分析

摘要 基于野外数据和已发表的生态和遗传信息，我们研究了两种常见有袋动物有袋动物和有袋动物的种群生存能力。使用 VORTEX v. 10. 2.6 程序，对有袋袋鼠的五个种群和弗吉尼亚袋鼠的六个种群进行了 1000 次迭代，进行了 100 年的模拟。在这两个物种中都观察到了低灭绝概率，尤其是 D. virginiana (0.000–0.007)。考虑到两种有袋动物的种群动态方法与个体种群相比，种群规模更大：D. marsupialis 498.25 个体，D. virginiana 367.41 个体。D. marsupialis (He = 0.77–0.78) 和 D. virginiana (He = 0.79–0.82) 的估计平均遗传多样性都很高。如果未来几十年有利于复合种群动态，尽管森林覆盖率损失率为 1.3%，但随着时间的推移，这两种物种的生存率有望提高。强烈建议监测种群规模和遗传多样性，以验证模型建议的趋势；对于 D. marsupialis 尤其如此，这是一种与保护区相关的物种，其数量正逐渐减少。这项研究提供了有关常见哺乳动物物种对森林砍伐等环境变化的反应的信息。与逐渐减少的保护区相关的物种。这项研究提供了有关常见哺乳动物物种对森林砍伐等环境变化的反应的信息。与逐渐减少的保护区相关的物种。这项研究提供了有关常见哺乳动物物种对森林砍伐等环境变化的反应的信息。