Abstract The dynamics of the development of the Russian economy from 2013 to the first half of 2019 is considered. The potential of future economic growth until 2024 is estimated by an average annual GDP growth rate of 4%. The main drivers of growth are the population’s demand for durable goods, postponed due to lower incomes, as well as investments in fixed assets and human capital, the current level and share of which do not meet Russia’s requirements for joining the world’s top five countries by 2024. It is noted that there are reserves of capacities, increasing the intensity of the use of labor resources, and financing R&D and technological upgrades of production to accelerate dynamics and improve the quality of economic growth in the medium and long term. The internal and external constraints and risks of socioeconomic development are discussed briefly. The key role of science as an instrument for risk reduction and effective economic policy as a whole is emphasized.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯经济增长前景

摘要 考虑了2013年至2019年上半年俄罗斯经济发展的动态。到 2024 年的未来经济增长潜力以年均 4% 的 GDP 增长率估算。增长的主要动力是人口对耐用品的需求因收入下降而推迟，以及对固定资产和人力资本的投资，目前的水平和份额不符合俄罗斯加入世界前五名国家的要求。 2024年，注意到有能力储备，增加劳动力资源使用强度，资助研发和生产技术升级，以加快动力，提高中长期经济增长质量。简要讨论了社会经济发展的内外部制约因素和风险。强调了科学作为降低风险和整体有效经济政策工具的关键作用。