Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migration and/or overwintering population surveys, but data are lacking to estimate the trends of some shorebird species. In addition, for most species, little is known about the stage(s) at which population bottlenecks occur, such as breeding vs. nonbreeding periods. We used previously published and unpublished estimates of vital rates to develop the first large-scale population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds in North America, including separate estimates for 3 subspecies of Dunlin. We used the models to estimate population trends and identify life stages at which population growth may be limited. Our model for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin agreed with previously published information that the subspecies is severely declining. Our results also linked the decline to the subspecies’ low annual adult survival rate, thus potentially implicating factors during the nonbreeding period in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. However, our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty, highlighting the need for more accurate and precise estimates of vital rates. Of the vital rates, annual adult survival had the strongest influence on population trend in all taxa. Improving the accuracy, precision, and spatial and temporal coverage of estimates of vital rates, especially annual adult survival, would improve demographic model-based estimates of population trends and help direct management to regions or seasons where birds are subject to higher mortality.

中文翻译：

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成年人的年生存率驱动着北极水鸟的发展趋势，但其他生命率方面的知识差距仍然存在

保护状况和管理优先事项通常由人口趋势告知。趋势估计可以从人口调查或模型中得出，但是两种方法都与不确定性来源相关。根据迁徙和/或越冬种群调查，许多北极shore鸟被认为正在减少，但缺乏估计某些shore鸟趋势的数据。此外，对于大多数物种而言，对种群瓶颈发生的阶段（例如繁殖与非繁殖时期）了解甚少。我们使用以前发表和未发表的生命率估算值，为北美6种北极繁殖shore鸟建立了首个大规模种群模型，其中包括对Dunlin的3个亚种的单独估算。我们使用这些模型来估计人口趋势并确定可能限制人口增长的生命阶段。我们的模型Arcticola敦林的亚种同意先前发布的信息，即亚种正在急剧减少。我们的研究结果还把下降与亚种的低成年成年率联系在一起，从而潜在地牵涉到东亚-澳大利亚飞越非繁殖期的因素。但是，我们对所有物种的趋势估计都显示出很高的不确定性，这凸显了对更准确的生命率估计的需求。在生命率中，成年年生存率在所有分类单元中对人口趋势的影响最大。提高准确率，尤其是成年成年存活率估算值的准确性，准确性和时空覆盖范围，将改善基于人口模型的人口趋势估算值，并有助于将管理转移到鸟类死亡率较高的地区或季节。