Risk-based optimization is a framework that allows the designer to involve uncertainties in the decision-making process and determine the reliability of a hydraulic structure. This study was conducted to incorporate hydrological and hydraulic uncertainties in the probabilistic design of Karun-4 diversion system in southwestern Iran. The risk-based multi-objective optimization was developed for determining the effect of uncertainty sources on the characteristics of the diversion system. For this purpose, the time series of annual maximum peak flow and maximum flood volume for a period of 58 years were prepared. Archimedean copula function and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm were adopted. The optimal values of upstream cofferdam height, downstream cofferdam height and the diameter of the first and second tunnels were estimated as 38, 11, 9.2 and 8.8 m, respectively, all corresponding to 25-year return period. The results suggest that the proposed framework could be valuable for decision makers when economic, hydraulic and hydrological uncertainties are expected.

中文翻译：

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使用 NSGAII 和双变量频率分析的分洪系统概率设计中的水文和水力不确定性分析

基于风险的优化是一个框架，它允许设计者在决策过程中考虑不确定性并确定水工结构的可靠性。本研究旨在将水文和水力不确定性纳入伊朗西南部 Karun-4 导流系统的概率设计中。开发了基于风险的多目标优化，用于确定不确定源对导流系统特性的影响。为此，准备了 58 年的年最大峰值流量和最大洪水量的时间序列。采用阿基米德Copula函数和非支配排序遗传算法。上游围堰高度、下游围堰高度及一、二洞直径的最佳值分别估算为38、11、9。2 和 8.8 m 分别对应 25 年重现期。结果表明，当预计经济、水力和水文不确定性时，提议的框架对决策者可能很有价值。