Exploring sources of uncertainty in premature mortality estimates from fine particulate matter: the case of China,Environmental Research Letters

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Exploring sources of uncertainty in premature mortality estimates from fine particulate matter: the case of China
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-11 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7f0f
Paolo Giani ₁ , Alessandro Anav ₂ , Alessandra De Marco ₂ , Zhaozhong Feng ₃ , Paola Crippa ₁

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Atmospheric pollution from fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is one of the major concerns in China because of its widespread and harmful impacts on human health. In recent years, multiple studies have sought to estimate the premature mortality burden from exposure to PM 2.5 to inform policy decisions. However, different modeling choices have led to a wide array of results, with significant discrepancies both in the total mortality burden and in the confidence intervals. Here, we present a new comprehensive assessment of PM 2.5 -related mortality for China, which includes quantification of the main sources of variability, as well as of age and province-specific premature mortality trends during 2015–2018. Our approach integrates PM 2.5 observations from more than 1600 monitoring stations with the output of a high-resolution (8 km) regional simulation, to accurately estimate PM 2.5 fields along with their uncertainty, which is genera...

更新日期：2020-06-11

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