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The role of risk measures in making seismic upgrading decisions
Earthquake Spectra ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-11 , DOI: 10.1177/8755293020919423
Lukas Bodenmann 1 , Panagiotis Galanis 2 , Marco Broccardo 1, 3 , Božidar Stojadinović 1
Affiliation  

Risk measures are tools that enable consistent measurement of financial risk and quantify the risk exposure to an associated hazard. In finance, there is a broad spectrum of risk measures which reflect different asset performance goals and the risk appetite of the decision-maker. In this study, the authors leverage advancements in financial risk management to examine the role of risk measures to quantify the seismically induced financial risk, measure the benefit of seismic upgrading, and relate the benefit of seismic risk reduction to a degree of the implemented seismic upgrade. The findings demonstrate that the relation between the financial benefits of a seismic upgrade, quantified using risk measures that consider the full range of earthquake events, and the degree of the seismic upgrade are concave, that is, the incremental financial benefit reduces gradually with increasing degree of seismic upgrading. The opposite holds if the risk measures consider only the high-severity low-likelihood events. Therefore, the study shows that the selection of the risk measure plays a crucial role in determining the target degree of seismic upgrading. Equivalently, quantifying the financial benefits of seismic risk mitigation using different risk measures might lead to different seismic upgrading decisions for the same structure.

中文翻译:

风险措施在地震升级决策中的作用

风险度量是能够对金融风险进行一致度量并量化相关危害的风险敞口的工具。在金融领域,有广泛的风险衡量标准,它们反映了不同的资产绩效目标和决策者的风险偏好。在这项研究中,作者利用金融风险管理方面的进步来检验风险措施在量化地震引发的金融风险、衡量地震升级的收益以及将降低地震风险的收益与实施的地震升级的程度相关联的作用. 研究结果表明,地震升级的财务收益(使用考虑全部地震事件的风险度量量化)与地震升级的程度之间的关系是凹的,即,增量财政收益随着地震升级程度的增加而逐渐减少。如果风险度量只考虑高严重性低可能性事件,则相反。因此,研究表明,风险测度的选择对确定地震升级的目标程度起着至关重要的作用。同样,使用不同的风险措施量化地震风险缓解的财务收益可能会导致同一结构的不同地震升级决策。
更新日期:2020-06-11
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