Using standard systems biology methodologies a 14-compartment dynamic model was developed for the Corona virus epidemic. The model predicts that: (i) it will be impossible to limit lockdown intensity such that sufficient herd immunity develops for this epidemic to die down, (ii) the death toll from the SARS-CoV-2 virus decreases very strongly with increasing intensity of the lockdown, but (iii) the duration of the epidemic increases at first with that intensity and then decreases again, such that (iv) it may be best to begin with selecting a lockdown intensity beyond the intensity that leads to the maximum duration, (v) an intermittent lockdown strategy should also work and might be more acceptable socially and economically, (vi) an initially intensive but adaptive lockdown strategy should be most efficient, both in terms of its low number of casualties and shorter duration, (vii) such an adaptive lockdown strategy offers the advantage of being robust to unexpected imports of the virus, e.g. due to international travel, (viii) the eradication strategy may still be superior as it leads to even fewer deaths and a shorter period of economic downturn, but should have the adaptive strategy as backup in case of unexpected infection imports, (ix) earlier detection of infections is the most effective way in which the epidemic can be controlled, whilst waiting for vaccines.

使用标准系统生物学方法，为冠状病毒流行开发了 14 室动态模型。该模型预测：(i) 不可能限制封锁强度，从而产生足够的群体免疫力来平息这种流行病，(ii) 随着封锁强度的增加，SARS-CoV-2 病毒造成的死亡人数急剧下降封锁，但是 (iii) 流行病的持续时间首先随该强度增加，然后再次减少，因此 (iv) 最好从选择超出导致最大持续时间的强度的封锁强度开始，（ v) 间歇性封锁策略也应该有效，并且可能在社会和经济上更容易被接受， (vi) 最初密集但适应性的封锁策略应该是最有效的，无论是伤亡人数较少还是持续时间较短， (vii) 这样适应性封锁策略的优点是能够有效应对病毒的意外输入，例如由于国际旅行而导致的病毒输入，(viii) 根除策略可能仍然更优越，因为它可以导致更少的死亡和更短的经济衰退期，但应该拥有适应性策略作为后备，以防出现意外的感染输入，(ix) 在等待疫苗的同时，及早发现感染是控制疫情的最有效方法。