Climate change projections over the Mediterranean basin point toward an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events that will directly impact ecosystems resilience. In this study, we evaluated future trends of soil loss in forestland in Catalonia (NE Spain) due to fires and vegetation dynamics, considering the potential future impacts of co‐occurring extreme fire and rainfall events, and assessing how fire suppression can contribute to soil erosion mitigation. The process‐based MEDFIRE model was used to simulate changes in forestland due to climate and fires between 2011 and 2050 under six different future scenarios that resulted from the combination of two climatic scenarios and three fire management policies. Annual projections on landscape changes were used to estimate soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation. Projected annual soil losses for forested land in Catalonia ranged between 15 and 16 tons/ha, with scenarios simulating current levels of fire suppression projecting around −5% soil loss than those assuming more relaxed suppression strategies. On average, fires explained 12–16% of annual soil loss in the region, but in fire‐severe years, they explained up to 90% of the total annual soil loss. Projected mean total soil loss in years where extreme rainfall and fire meet was 150% higher than in years where both events were not contemporary. The estimated annual probability that the two extreme impacts will co‐occur in the future ranged between 0.09 and 0.11 between scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of landscape and fire management in minimizing soil loss and its potential impacts for ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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地中海极端气候对未来的影响：火灾和极端降雨相遇时的土壤侵蚀预测

地中海盆地的气候变化预测表明，极端事件的频率和强度将增加，这将直接影响生态系统的复原力。在这项研究中，我们评估了加泰罗尼亚（西班牙东北部）因森林大火和植被动态造成的土壤流失的未来趋势，考虑了同时发生的极端火灾和降雨事件的潜在未来影响，并评估了灭火对土壤的贡献减轻侵蚀。基于过程的MEDFIRE模型用于模拟在2011年至2050年之间由于两种气候情景和三种消防管理政策相结合而产生的六种不同未来情景下由于气候和火灾引起的林地变化。利用景观变化的年度预测来估计土壤流失，通用土壤流失方程。加泰罗尼亚林地的预计年度土壤流失介于15吨/公顷至16吨/公顷之间，与模拟更为宽松的灭火策略相比，模拟当前灭火水平的情景预测的土壤流失约为-5％。平均而言，火灾占该地区年土壤流失的12-16％，但在烈火年代，火灾占年土壤流失总量的90％。在极端降雨和大火相遇的年份，预计的平均土壤总损失比这两个事件都不是当代的年份要高150％。在两种情况之间，这两种极端影响未来共同发生的估计年度概率在0.09到0.11之间。我们的结果凸显了景观和火灾管理在最大程度减少土壤流失及其对生态系统潜在影响方面的重要性。