Abstract The physiological behaviour of fresh horticultural produce such as respiration and transpiration affects its quality and shelf life. Several studies have reported the models for shelf life prediction of packaged and non-packaged fruits and vegetables; however, while including a single quality parameter. Fluctuations in storage conditions add further complexity to the physiological processes. In this study, an integrated mathematical modelling for shelf life prediction of strawberry based on respiration and transpiration was developed and validated under realistic supply chain conditions. The model simultaneously considered three indices: microbial deterioration, mass loss and cumulative CO2 production after harvest as a guide to predict shelf-life of packaged and non-packaged strawberries. The model was found to be useful to simulate the shelf life of strawberries under modified atmosphere packaging and open tray conditions under varying temperature and humidity as normally observed in the supply chain. Deterioration based shelf life for strawberry was 10.8 d under MAP condition as compared to 9.5 d in open tray. Mass loss based shelf life for strawberry was 8.0 d for MAP condition as compared to 2.3 d in open tray. The cumulative CO2 produced up to the keeping quality was varying in a narrow range of 6.09 ± 0.21 g kg−1, in spite of different perforation diameters and storage temperatures. The proposed model will enable optimization of supply chain and making advices to all role players, including growers, traders and consumers.

中文翻译：

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基于呼吸蒸腾过程的草莓保质期预测模型

摘要 新鲜园艺产品的呼吸和蒸腾作用等生理行为影响其质量和保质期。多项研究报告了包装和非包装水果和蔬菜的保质期预测模型；然而，同时包括一个单一的质量参数。储存条件的波动进一步增加了生理过程的复杂性。在本研究中，基于呼吸和蒸腾作用的草莓保质期预测综合数学模型在现实供应链条件下开发和验证。该模型同时考虑了三个指标：微生物恶化、质量损失和收获后累积的二氧化碳产量，作为预测包装和非包装草莓保质期的指导。发现该模型可用于模拟草莓在气调包装和开放式托盘条件下在供应链中通常观察到的不同温度和湿度下的保质期。草莓在 MAP 条件下基于变质的保质期为 10.8 天，而在开放托盘中为 9.5 天。草莓的基于质量损失的保质期在 MAP 条件下为 8.0 天，而在开放托盘中为 2.3 天。尽管穿孔直径和储存温度不同，但直至保持质量产生的累积 CO2 在 6.09 ± 0.21 g kg-1 的狭窄范围内变化。提议的模型将能够优化供应链并向所有角色参与者（包括种植者、贸易商和消费者）提出建议。