Abstract Cross-border power trade in the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) has been very low for nearly 15 years since its inception in 2005. This analysis uses a least-cost generation and transmission capacity expansion model to assess economic and CO2 emissions reduction benefits from different levels of integration. These benefits are assessed for several policy scenarios around renewable energy, national energy security and CO2 emission reduction targets. In addition, we have explored if major drought events may significantly alter the benefits of trade. The World Bank Electricity Planning Model (EPM) is used to represent 11 countries in the EAPP, Eritrea, South Sudan (and SAPP as an external system) for 2020–2030 including all existing, committed and planned generation and interconnectors. Our analysis shows encouraging prospects for EAPP to potentially gain $7.6 billion from a “Shallow” level of integration wherein countries retain their national plans and interconnections are limited to existing and already committed transmission links. A “Tight” integration that requires generation and (new) interconnection plans to be optimized at a regional level, would increase benefits to $18.6 billion. Tight integration would be most efficient in meeting a 30% CO2 emission reduction target by 2030 retaining $11.8 billion of benefits. This CO2 target can be met at 3.8 times lower cost of $6.6 billion compared to the $25.7 billion needed to meet the target in the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of very low trade. We find that imposing a 20% upper limit on imports would still retain 80% of the benefits that allays a large part of the concerns around national energy security. We have also simulated extreme droughts that may reduce benefits of trade due to 20%–30% lower hydro availability from hydro dominated systems like Ethiopia. This indeed affects the benefits of a Shallow integration although more than 60% of base case benefits are still retained. Higher flexibility of a Tight integration, on the other hand, allows for a benefit retention of 89% or more, by adjusting flow volumes and directions of trade. A Tight integration renders a greater ability to the system to reduce the impact of major droughts and meet policy constraints including CO2 emission and import restrictions at a lower cost, due to the intrinsic flexibility of a stronger and wider network. Since all these issues are very realistic, the additional investments in major cross-border links and institutional challenges should be addressed to achieve significant benefits over the medium term. Overall, our exploration of the key facets of trade in EAPP suggests an overwhelmingly positive case for trade pointing to a rapid increase in trade volume by an order of magnitude over the next decade.

中文翻译：

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通过贸易促进更好的经济、可再生能源和二氧化碳减排：东非电力库的案例研究

摘要 东非电力池（EAPP）自 2005 年成立以来的近 15 年中，跨境电力贸易一直处于非常低的水平。本分析使用最低成本发电和输电扩容模型来评估经济和二氧化碳减排效益。来自不同层面的整合。围绕可再生能源、国家能源安全和二氧化碳减排目标的若干政策情景评估了这些收益。此外，我们还探讨了重大干旱事件是否会显着改变贸易收益。世界银行电力规划模型 (EPM) 用于代表 2020-2030 年 EAPP、厄立特里亚、南苏丹（和 SAPP 作为外部系统）的 11 个国家，包括所有现有、承诺和计划的发电和互连器。我们的分析显示，EAPP 有可能从“浅”整合水平中获得 76 亿美元的令人鼓舞的前景，在这种整合中，各国保留其国家计划，而互连仅限于现有和已经承诺的传输链路。需要在区域层面优化发电和（新）互连计划的“紧密”整合将使收益增加到 186 亿美元。到 2030 年，要实现 30% 的二氧化碳减排目标，同时保留 118 亿美元的收益，紧密整合将是最有效的。与在极低贸易量的一切照旧 (BAU) 情景中实现目标所需的 257 亿美元相比，这一 CO2 目标可以以 66 亿美元的成本降低 3.8 倍。我们发现，对进口施加 20% 的上限仍会保留 80% 的好处，从而减轻对国家能源安全的大部分担忧。我们还模拟了极端干旱，这可能会降低贸易收益，因为埃塞俄比亚等以水电为主的系统的水电可用性降低了 20%–30%。这确实影响了浅集成的好处，尽管仍然保留了超过 60% 的基本情况好处。另一方面，紧密集成的更高灵活性允许通过调整流量和贸易方向保留 89% 或更多的利益。紧密集成使系统能够以更低的成本减少重大干旱的影响并满足政策限制，包括二氧化碳排放和进口限制，由于更强大和更广泛的网络的内在灵活性。由于所有这些问题都非常现实，应解决对主要跨境联系和制度挑战的额外投资，以在中期取得显着收益。总体而言，我们对 EAPP 贸易关键方面的探索表明，贸易量非常乐观，未来十年贸易量将快速增长一个数量级。