Robotics and the automation of knowledge work, often referred to as AI (artificial intelligence), are presented in the media as likely to have massive impacts, for better or worse, on jobs skills, organizations and society. The article deconstructs the dominant hype-and-fear narrative. Claims on net job loss emerge as exaggerated, but there will be considerable skills disruption and change in the major global economies over the next 12 years. The term AI has been hijacked, in order to suggest much more going on technologically than can be the case. The article reviews critically the research evidence so far, including the author’s own, pointing to eight major qualifiers to the dominant discourse of major net job loss from a seamless, overwhelming AI wave sweeping fast through the major economies. The article questions many assumptions: that automation creates few jobs short or long term; that whole jobs can be automated; that the technology is perfectible; that organizations can seamlessly and quickly deploy AI; that humans are machines that can be replicated; and that it is politically, socially and economically feasible to apply these technologies. A major omission in all studies is factoring in dramatic increases in the amount of work to be done. Adding in ageing populations, productivity gaps and skills shortages predicted across many G20 countries, the danger might be too little, rather than too much labour. The article concludes that, if there is going to be a Robo-Apocalypse, this will be from a collective failure to adjust to skills change over the next 12 years. But the debate needs to be widened to the impact of eight other technologies that AI insufficiently represents in the popular imagination and that, in combination, could cause a techno-apocalypse.

中文翻译：

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机器人启示录取消了？重新定义工作的自动化和未来辩论

机器人技术和知识工作自动化，通常被称为 AI（人工智能），在媒体中被认为可能对工作技能、组织和社会产生巨大影响，无论好坏。这篇文章解构了占主导地位的炒作和恐惧叙事。对净失业的要求似乎被夸大了，但未来 12 年全球主要经济体将出现相当大的技能中断和变化。人工智能一词已被劫持，以表明技术上发生的事情比实际情况要多得多。这篇文章批判性地回顾了迄今为止的研究证据，包括作者自己的证据，指出了八个主要的限定词，以说明主要经济体在无缝、压倒性的人工智能浪潮中快速席卷主要经济体造成的主要净失业。这篇文章质疑了许多假设：自动化短期或长期创造的工作机会很少；整个工作都可以自动化；该技术是可完善的；组织可以无缝快速地部署人工智能；人类是可以复制的机器；并且应用这些技术在政治、社会和经济上都是可行的。所有研究中的一个主要遗漏是将要完成的工作量的急剧增加考虑在内。加上许多 G20 国家预测的人口老龄化、生产力差距和技能短缺，危险可能太小，而不是劳动力太多。这篇文章的结论是，如果要发生机器人启示录，那将是由于在未来 12 年内无法适应技能变化的集体失败。