Nowadays worldwide directives have focused the attention on improving energy efficiency in the building sector. The research of models able to predict the energy consumption from the first design and energy planning phase is conducted to improve building sustainability. Use of traditional forecasting tools for building thermal energy demand tends to encounter difficulties relevant to the amount of data required, implementation of the models, computational costs and inability to generalize the output. Therefore, many studies focused on the research and development of alternative resolution methods, but the choice of the most convenient is not clear and simple. Single comparison of statistical quality indexes does not allow an adequate identification of the most efficient method, as the necessary efforts for implementation of the methods from the initial data collection to the use phase are not considered. In this work, the authors propose to apply, for the first time, the multicriteria assessment to determine the most efficient alternative method, used for forecasting of building thermal energy demand. Three alternative “black-box” methods, previously investigated by the authors, were compared by the multiple criteria Complex Proportional Assessment Method. Such a procedure revealed ranking of the methods in four phases, namely Pre-processing, Implementation, Post-processing and Use, as well as overall assessment and selection of the most efficient method in terms of evaluated criteria. This first application could represent an incentive for future multi-criteria analyses involving a growing number of alternative forecasting methods.

如今，全球指令已将注意力集中在提高建筑部门的能源效率上。为了能够提高建筑的可持续性，对能够在第一个设计和能源计划阶段预测能耗的模型进行了研究。传统的预测工具用于建筑热能需求的使用往往会遇到与所需数据量，模型的实现，计算成本以及无法归纳输出相关的困难。因此，许多研究都集中在替代分辨率方法的研究和开发上，但是最方便的选择却不清楚和简单。统计质量指标的单一比较无法充分识别最有效的方法，因为没有考虑实施从初始数据收集到使用阶段的方法的必要工作。在这项工作中，作者建议首次应用多标准评估来确定最有效的替代方法，该方法可用于预测建筑热能需求。作者先前研究过的三种替代性“黑匣子”方法通过多种标准复杂比例评估法进行了比较。这样的程序揭示了方法在四个阶段的排名，即预处理，实施，后处理和使用，以及根据评估的标准对最有效的方法进行整体评估和选择。