The light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector is undergoing many changes, including technological advancements (e.g., vehicle electrification, automation), new business models (e.g., ride-hailing), and government regulations and policies (e.g., fuel economy (FE) standards, zero-emission vehicle mandates, infrastructure investments, and incentives to encourage adoption of alternative fuel vehicles). Despite significant uncertainty, these developments, combined with demographic growth, will influence the future LDV fleet size and composition, and consequently the oil demand from LDVs. This paper provides a review of changes in the LDV sector and an assessment of their impact on oil demand. It takes into account the impact of LDV fleet growth, increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative fuels (focus on biofuels), and improvements in internal combustion engine vehicles’ (ICEV) FE. Our analysis indicates that oil demand in 2040 could remain unchanged relative to 2016, but depending on the development of certain trends, demand could shrink or increase by ~6 million barrels per day (±25% relative to 2016). Our findings suggest that ICEV FE improvements could have a much greater impact on oil demand than the emergence of EVs. Moreover, preliminary research indicates that automation and shared mobility could reinforce the economic attractiveness of EVs, thereby increasing their penetration and impact on oil demand. Because of uncertainties in the development of these two trends by 2040 and difficulties in quantifying the complex interactions, we have not captured these effects in our model. Therefore, the range of uncertainty on the oil demand evolution could be even higher than our model indicates.

轻型车（LDV）行业正在经历许多变化，包括技术进步（例如车辆电气化、自动化）、新的商业模式（例如网约车）以及政府法规和政策（例如燃油经济性（FE））标准、零排放汽车规定、基础设施投资以及鼓励采用替代燃料汽车的激励措施）。尽管存在很大的不确定性，但这些发展加上人口增长，将影响未来 LDV 车队的规模和构成，从而影响 LDV 的石油需求。本文回顾了 LDV 行业的变化并评估了其对石油需求的影响。它考虑了 LDV 车队增长、电动汽车 (EV) 和替代燃料（重点是生物燃料）普及率的提高以及内燃机汽车 (ICEV) FE 改进的影响。我们的分析表明，2040 年石油需求相对 2016 年可能保持不变，但根据某些趋势的发展，需求可能会减少或增加约 600 万桶/日（相对 2016 年±25%）。我们的研究结果表明，ICEV FE 的改进可能比电动汽车的出现对石油需求产生更大的影响。此外，初步研究表明，自动化和共享出行可以增强电动汽车的经济吸引力，从而提高其渗透率和对石油需求的影响。由于到 2040 年这两种趋势发展的不确定性以及量化复杂相互作用的困难，我们尚未在模型中捕捉到这些影响。因此，石油需求演变的不确定性范围可能比我们的模型显示的还要高。