Livestock export from Somaliland to the Arabian Peninsula countries is an important economic activity and the main source of Somaliland’s foreign exchange earnings. We have employed multiple regression time series analysis of secondary data to understand factors that influence the monthly volumes of small ruminants (sheep and goats) and cattle traded for export in three terminal markets in Somaliland. Results show that the Hajj season, number of livestock exporters active in the markets, market location and livestock ban imposed by the import countries are the main factors that influence the monthly volume of livestock transacted for export. Further, the results indicate that though drought does not influence the volume of small ruminants, it has an influence on the volume of cattle, while the implementation of quarantine stations has a significant influence on the volumes of livestock exports. Finally, border restrictions imposed by Ethiopia do not influence the volume of livestock transacted for export in the study markets. Most of the factors analysed to have influence on monthly volume livestock transacted for export are institutional and policy-related hence can be corrected though requisite regulatory, institutional and policy reforms in consultations with stakeholders.

中文翻译：

---

影响索马里兰终端市场牲畜出口的因素

从索马里兰向阿拉伯半岛国家的畜牧出口是一项重要的经济活动，是索马里兰外汇收入的主要来源。我们对二手数据进行了多元回归时间序列分析，以了解影响索马里兰三个终端市场上的小反刍动物（绵羊和山羊）和牛每月出口量的影响因素。结果表明，朝j季节，活跃在市场上的牲畜出口商数量，市场位置和进口国实施的牲畜禁令是影响每月出口牲畜交易量的主要因素。此外，结果表明，干旱虽然不会影响小反刍动物的数量，但会影响牛的数量，检疫站的实施对牲畜出口量有重大影响。最后，埃塞俄比亚施加的边境限制不会影响在研究市场上出口交易的牲畜数量。分析影响到出口牲畜月交易量的大多数因素与体制和政策有关，因此可以通过与利益相关者协商进行必要的监管，体制和政策改革予以纠正。