Background Pursuing GHG reductions by means of all resources and efforts has turned out no result to stop or even slow the global warming: the globe still gets warmer and warmer, especially in the recent years, at record-breaking rate almost each single year. Additionally, no definitive relationship has been found between the warming and the atmospheric GHG concentration. The link between them even in IPCC’s report lacks support and is unconvincing. All these imply that something else is responsible for the warming. On the other hand, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat from human activities has been poured into the climate system but has not been considered seriously in the context of global warming or climate change. Results This article features deploying the basic principles of thermodynamics and applying a new model, Equivalent Climate Change Model, to analyse the currently available data on world energy consumption between 1965 and 2017, and to study the relation between the global warming and the waste heat entered the climate system. The results show that the temperature changes in air, oceans and land are definitively correlated to the respective heat allocated from the waste heat stream based on their specific heat capacities, with high certainty and reliability. The observed anomalies in air fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change surface air boundary layer depth between 50 and 100 m (60 ~ 100 m in recent decades due to more establishments of high-rising heat discharging sources); the anomalies in oceans fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change waters surface boundary layer depth between 0.10 and 0.20 m (0.125 ~ 0.20 m in recent decades); and the anomalies in land fall within a range of simulations at an equivalent climate change land surface boundary layer depth between 0.05 and 0.10 m (0.06 ~ 0.10 m in recent decades). The simulation results at the air layer depth of 70 m are almost the same as NASA’s Lowess smoothing trend. Forecast of future global warming based on this model under the scenario of business as usual indicates that the possible air temperature risings will be in the range of 0.68 ~ 1.13 °C in 2030 and 0.73 ~ 1.22 °C in 2040; the possible sea temperature risings will be in the range of 0.61 ~ 0.98 °C in 2030, 0.66 ~ 1.05 °C in 2040; and the possible land temperature risings will be in the range of 1.02 ~ 1.71 °C in 2030, 1.10 ~ 1.84 °C in 2040. However, if the energy conversion efficiency increased by 10% by 2030 and another 10% by 2040, then the possible air temperature risings would be in the range of 0.54 ~ 0.90 °C in 2030 and 0.44 ~ 0.73 °C in 2040; the possible sea temperature risings would be in the range of 0.49 ~ 0.78 °C in 2030, and 0.40 ~ 0.64 °C in 2040; and the possible land temperature risings would be in the range of 0.81 ~ 1.36 °C in 2030 and 0.66 ~ 1.11 °C in 2040. The observed global average air temperature changes and the Lowess Smoothing values in 2018 and 2019 fall within the range set by the air layer depth between 60 and 100 m, are consistent with the forecast under the scenario of business as usual, further confirms the reliability of this approach. Conclusions Greenhouse gases are not the culprit of the current global warming, instead, huge amount of residual heat or waste heat discharged into the environment from human activities has dominated the warming (beside of solar irradiance and volcano eruptions). Pursuing GHG reductions is bound to be ineffective in preventing the globe from further warming but increases unnecessary burdens. Switching to 100% of surface renewable energies is the ideal solution to completely solve further warming problem. However, geotherm does cause global warming although it is a type of renewable energy. Increasing energy’s conversion efficiency can effectively help slow down the warming, it requires vast investment and will embrace breakthroughs in technologies. Changing human’s behavior individually and socially and retrofitting can decrease the energy consumption and the amount of heat entering the environment and thus help mitigate climate change and its impact in the most cost-effective way. Unlike the General Circulation Models that can only simulate the past air temperature changes with greater uncertainty, the Equivalent Climate Change Model can not only trace the past temperature changes in air, oceans and land, but also can predict the future changes in them, respectively, with high certainty and reliability.

中文翻译：

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废热：当前全球变暖的主要根源

背景 不惜一切资源和努力追求温室气体减排并没有阻止甚至减缓全球变暖：全球仍在变暖，尤其是近年来，几乎每年都以创纪录的速度变暖。此外，在变暖和大气温室气体浓度之间没有发现明确的关系。即使在 IPCC 的报告中，它们之间的联系也缺乏支持并且没有说服力。所有这些都暗示着其他因素导致了变暖。另一方面，人类活动产生的大量余热或余热已涌入气候系统，但并未在全球变暖或气候变化的背景下得到认真考虑。结果这篇文章的特点是部署热力学的基本原理并应用一个新模型，等效气候变化模型，分析1965-2017年世界能源消耗的现有数据，研究全球变暖与进入气候系统的余热之间的关系。结果表明，空气、海洋和陆地的温度变化与基于其比热容的废热流分配的各自热量明确相关，具有高度的确定性和可靠性。观测到的空气异常在模拟范围内，等效气候变化地表空气边界层深度在 50 至 100 m 之间（近几十年来，由于更多的高层热排放源的建立，为 60 至 100 m）；在 0.10 到 0 之间的等效气候变化水域表面边界层深度处，海洋中的异常属于模拟范围。20 m（近几十年来为0.125～0.20 m）；并且在等效的气候变化地表边界层深度为 0.05 至 0.10 m（最近几十年为 0.06 至 0.10 m）时，陆地异常落在模拟范围内。70 m 空气层深度处的模拟结果与 NASA 的 Lowess 平滑趋势几乎相同。照常情景下基于该模型对未来全球变暖的预测表明，2030年气温可能上升0.68～1.13℃，2040年可能上升0.73～1.22℃；2030年海温可能上升0.61～0.98℃，2040年0.66～1.05℃；2030年陆地温度可能上升1.02～1.71℃，2040年上升1.10～1.84℃。如果能源转换效率到2030年提高10%，到2040年再提高10%，那么2030年气温可能上升0.54～0.90℃，2040年上升0.44～0.73℃；2030年海温可能上升0.49～0.78℃，2040年上升0.40～0.64℃；2030 年陆地温度可能上升 0.81 ~ 1.36 °C，2040 年上升 0.66 ~ 1.11 °C。 观测到的全球平均气温变化和 2018 年和 2019 年的 Lowess Smoothing 值均落在下空气层深度在60-100m之间，与正常业务情景下的预测一致，进一步证实了该方法的可靠性。结论 温室气体不是当前全球变暖的罪魁祸首，相反，人类活动排放到环境中的大量余热或废热主导了气候变暖（除了太阳辐照度和火山爆发）。追求温室气体减排势必无法有效防止全球进一步变暖，反而会增加不必要的负担。改用 100% 的地表可再生能源是彻底解决进一步变暖问题的理想解决方案。然而，地热虽然是一种可再生能源，但确实会导致全球变暖。提高能源转换效率可以有效减缓气候变暖，需要大量投资，也需要技术上的突破。从个人和社会方面改变人类的行为并进行改造可以减少能源消耗和进入环境的热量，从而以最具成本效益的方式帮助缓解气候变化及其影响。不同于一般环流模型只能模拟具有较大不确定性的过去气温变化，等效气候变化模型不仅可以追踪过去空气、海洋和陆地的温度变化，而且可以分别预测它们未来的变化，具有高度的确定性和可靠性。