This paper describes a tri-trophic analysis of the ecological dynamics of a crop, an insect pest, and a natural enemy of the insect pest. Worldwide wheat (Triticum Linnaeus) (Poaceae) production in 2018–2019 was estimated at over 700 million metric tons in 2018–2019. Wheat midge, Sitodiplosis mosellana (Géhin) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), a serious insect pest of wheat, is widely distributed in many parts of the world where wheat production occurs. Macroglenes penetrans (Kirby) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae), a parasitoid of S. mosellana, has successfully established in most wheat midge-infested areas. Mechanistic, or process-based, population models were used in this study to assess the interactive population dynamics of the three species, based on their respective life cycles and meteorological factors. The models were validated with survey data from multiple sites over numerous years (1991–2016). These simulation models helped to detail our understanding of the tri-trophic population dynamics and will help guide pest management decisions both prior to the growing season and until wheat heading, when wheat is no longer susceptible to S. mosellana. The associated models also help identify gaps in system knowledge, provide a foundation for evaluating future innovative management options, and evaluate the potential impact of a changing climate.

本文介绍了对作物，害虫和害虫天敌的生态动力学的三向分析。全球小麦（小麦在2018-2019林奈）（禾本科）生产的2018 - 2019年估计为700多万吨。小麦mid ，Sitodiplosis mosellana（Géhin）（双翅目：Cecidomyiidae），一种严重的小麦害虫，在世界许多发生小麦生产的地方广泛分布。Macroglenes穿通（卡比）（膜翅目：金小蜂科），的寄生S. mosellana，已经在大多数小麦mid虫感染地区成功建立。在这项研究中，使用了基于机械或过程的种群模型，根据它们各自的生命周期和气象因素评估了这三个物种的互动种群动态。多年来（1991-2016年）来自多个站点的调查数据对模型进行了验证。这些模拟模型有助于详细说明我们对三营养种群动态的理解，并有助于指导害虫管理决策，既可以在生长季节之前，也可以在小麦抽穗之前（此时小麦不再易受沙门氏菌感染）。。关联的模型还有助于发现系统知识方面的差距，为评估未来的创新管理方案提供基础，并评估气候变化的潜在影响。