Assessing groundwater resources in the arid and semiarid borderlands of the United States and Mexico represents a challenge for land and water managers, particularly in the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer (TSCA). Population growth, residential construction, and industrial activities have increased groundwater demand in the TSCA, in addition to wastewater treatment and sanitation demands. These activities, coupled with climate variability, influence the hydrology of the TSCA and emphasize the need for groundwater assessment tools for decision‐making purposes. This study assesses the impacts of changes in groundwater demand, effluent discharge, and climate uncertainties within the TSCA from downstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant to the northern boundary of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area. We use a conceptual water budget model to analyze the long‐term impact of the different components of potential recharge and water losses within the aquifer. Modeling results project a future that ranges from severe long‐term drying to positive wetting. This research improves the understanding of the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on water sustainability, with an accessible methodology that can be globally applied.

中文翻译：

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气候和污水流量变化对跨界圣克鲁斯含水层的影响

评估美国和墨西哥的干旱和半干旱边境地区的地下水资源对土地和水管理者来说是一个挑战，特别是在跨界圣克鲁斯含水层（TSCA）中。除废水处理和卫生要求外，人口增长，住宅建设和工业活动增加了TSCA中的地下水需求。这些活动，加上气候多变性，影响了TSCA的水文学，并强调了出于决策目的而需要地下水评估工具的需求。这项研究评估了从Nogales国际废水处理厂的下游到圣克鲁斯有效管理区北部边界的TSCA内地下水需求，废水排放和气候不确定性变化的影响。我们使用概念性水预算模型来分析含水层中潜在补给和水损失的不同组成部分的长期影响。建模结果预测了从长期干燥到积极润湿的未来。这项研究通过一种可以在全球范围内应用的易用方法，增进了人们对自然和人为变量对水可持续性影响的理解。