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A prospect theory-based three-way decision model
Knowledge-Based Systems ( IF 8.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.knosys.2020.106129
Tianxing Wang , Huaxiong Li , Xianzhong Zhou , Bing Huang , Haibin Zhu

In three-way decision, how to reflect the risk attitude in determining decision rules is an important issue. In the classical three-way decision model, loss functions are used to measure risks and determine the minimum-cost decision rules. On this basis, the utility function has been used as a new risk measurement to determine the maximum-utility decision rules. However, some studies show that utility theory may produce some paradoxes and cannot reflect the real risk attitude. To address this problem, we propose a prospect theory-based three-way decision model. In this scenario, we use prospect theory to describe decision-makers’ risk attitudes and utilize the value function as a new risk measurement. The decision rules are induced based on the principle of prospect value maximization. Then, we analyze and prove the existence and uniqueness of thresholds. Two specific analytic solutions of thresholds are calculated and the simplified decision rules are derived. A case study is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our model and make comparisons with other related models. Finally, the results of the experimental analysis are reported to validate the feasibility and performance of our proposed model.



中文翻译:

基于前景理论的三向决策模型

在三向决策中,如何在确定决策规则时反映风险态度是一个重要的问题。在经典的三向决策模型中,损失函数用于度量风险并确定最小成本决策规则。在此基础上,效用函数已用作确定最大效用决策规则的新风险度量。但是,一些研究表明效用理论可能会产生一些悖论,不能反映真实的风险态度。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种基于前景理论的三向决策模型。在这种情况下,我们使用前景理论来描述决策者的风险态度,并将价值函数用作新的风险度量。决策规则是基于预期价值最大化的原理得出的。然后,我们分析并证明阈值的存在和唯一性。计算了两个特定的阈值解析解,并得出了简化的决策规则。提出了一个案例研究来说明我们模型的有效性,并与其他相关模型进行比较。最后,报告了实验分析的结果,以验证我们提出的模型的可行性和性能。

更新日期:2020-06-10
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