Abstract The interannual variability of the total ozone (TOZ) in the equatorial region (5°S – 5°N) has been studied using the satellite daily and monthly data in 1978–2018. The coupling of the equatorial TOZ changes to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere has long been known. However, the detailed analysis of the daily deseasonalized TOZ data over the course of 15 complete wind QBO cycles convincingly showed some new important features of the ozone QBO (ΔTOZ). The key points of the equatorial ΔTOZ variations are clearly linked with the certain time moments during the downward propagation from ~10 to ~70 hPa of the easterly and westerly regimes of the wind QBO. The equatorial ΔTOZ distinctly maximizes when the westerly regime reaches ~70 hPa and the easterly regime appears at ~10 hPa, which occur simultaneously. The times of minima of the equatorial ΔTOZ are less obvious due to the westerly regime appearance at ~10 hPa on the background of the unfinished descent of the easterly regime. Furthermore, the seasonal regularities of the wind QBO causes the seasonal dependence of the ozone QBO in the equatorial region. Maxima of the equatorial ΔTOZ are definitely observed near solstice months (June or December). This result contradicts to the general belief about lack of the seasonal synchronization of the equatorial ozone QBO in contrast to the seasonally synchronized extratropical ozone. However, the coincidence of the equatorial ΔTOZ maxima with solstices and, consequently, their recurrence every 2 or 2.5 years allow a prediction of the equatorial TOZ, based on the long-term forecast of the wind QBO. The ozone QBO forecast for subsequent about two years (2019–2021) is presented.

中文翻译：

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赤道总臭氧的准两年振荡：2019-2021 年的季节性依赖和预测

摘要 利用 1978-2018 年的卫星日数据和月数据，研究了赤道​​地区（5°S – 5°N）臭氧总量（TOZ）的年际变化。赤道TOZ变化与赤道平流层纬向风的准双年振荡（QBO）的耦合早已为人所知。然而，对 15 个完整的风 QBO 循环过程中每日去季节性的 TOZ 数据的详细分析令人信服地显示了臭氧 QBO (ΔTOZ) 的一些新的重要特征。赤道 ΔTOZ 变化的关键点与风 QBO 的东风和西风状态从~10 hPa 到~70 hPa 向下传播期间的某些时刻明显相关。当西风状态达到~70 hPa 时，赤道 ΔTOZ 明显最大化，而东风状态出现在~10 hPa 时，同时发生。由于在东风制度未完成下降的背景下~10 hPa 处出现西风制度，赤道 ΔTOZ 的最小值时间不太明显。此外，风QBO的季节性规律导致赤道地区臭氧QBO的季节性依赖性。赤道 ΔTOZ 的最大值在冬至月（6 月或 12 月）附近肯定会观察到。这一结果与普遍的看法相矛盾，即赤道臭氧 QBO 与季节性同步的温带臭氧相比缺乏季节性同步。然而，赤道 ΔTOZ 最大值与至点的重合以及因此它们每 2 年或 2.5 年的复发允许基于风 QBO 的长期预测来预测赤道 TOZ。