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Energy production and trade openness: Assessing economic growth, CO2 emissions and the applicability of the cointegration analysis
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 7.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100488
Hélde A.D. Hdom , José Alberto Fuinhas

The relationship between economic activities such as energy production, trade, and economic growth affects all areas of human life in terms of well-being, as well as a country's economic activities. In this study, we investigate these relationships using cointegration regression methods (FMOLS - fully modified ordinary least square and DOLS - dynamic ordinary least squares), we use the electricity production (hydro, natural gas and renewables), trade opening, GDP, and CO2 emissions to establish causality. We found that electricity generation, GDP and trade liberalization have both positive and negative effects on Brazil's economy. We also discovered a bi-directional causality between trade openness and all the energies produced in Brazil. Separately, we observed that GDP, hydropower, and renewables have negative effects on the CO2 emissions model, while only emissions of pollution and trade openness have positive effects on the economic growth model. These results have important policy implications for the Brazilian economy that does not support appropriate long-term sustainable development strategies. Consequently, policymakers should consider implementing appropriate management capacity to encourage the use of renewable energy and to benefit from the positive effects of economic growth and environmental policies to control the pollution rate through the potential of available natural resources. Our findings are not motivated by discrepancies or sample selection and survive multiple specifications, allowing to observe the relationship with great accuracy. Some diagnostic tests have been applied to show that it is not misleading.



中文翻译:

能源生产和贸易开放:评估经济增长,CO2排放量和协整分析的适用性

诸如能源生产,贸易和经济增长之类的经济活动之间的关系会影响人类生活的各个方面的福祉以及一国的经济活动。在这项研究中,我们使用协整回归方法(FMOLS-完全修改的普通最小二乘法和DOLS-动态普通最小二乘法)研究了这些关系,我们使用了电力生产(水电,天然气和可再生能源),贸易开放度,GDP和CO2排放建立因果关系。我们发现,发电,GDP和贸易自由化对巴西的经济既有正面影响,也有负面影响。我们还发现了贸易开放与巴西生产的所有能源之间的双向因果关系。另外,我们观察到GDP,水电,可再生能源对二氧化碳排放模型具有负面影响,而只有污染排放和贸易开放对经济增长模型具有正面影响。这些结果对不支持适当的长期可持续发展战略的巴西经济具有重要的政策影响。因此,决策者应考虑实施适当的管理能力,以鼓励使用可再生能源,并从经济增长和环境政策的积极影响中受益,以通过可利用的自然资源的潜力来控制污染率。我们的发现不受差异或样本选择的驱使,并且可以保留多种规格,从而可以非常精确地观察这种关系。

更新日期:2020-06-10
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