Energy security is one of the critical priorities of energy policy in the European Union and particularly in the Baltic region that is currently transforming itself from an isolated energy island to a highly interconnected area. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of energy security in Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania in the context of the energy transition is presented. The paper explores regional implications of two paths of carbon price (gradual and delayed carbon price increase). The analysis is performed by linking an energy system optimisation model with a probabilistic model of energy security. This modelling suite is used to assess the resilience of the planned energy system to possible disruptions. The results demonstrate that carbon price paths have a modest impact on energy security in Baltic countries if energy security measures are implemented in an optimal way. The research is based on the case study conducted in the framework of the European Union's Horizon 2020 project REEEM.

能源安全是欧盟（尤其是波罗的海地区）能源政策的关键优先事项之一，目前波罗的海地区正将自己从孤立的能源岛转变为高度互联的地区。本文对能源转型背景下的爱沙尼亚，芬兰，拉脱维亚和立陶宛的能源安全进行了综合分析。本文探讨了碳价两条路径（逐步和延迟的碳价上涨）的区域意义。通过将能源系统优化模型与能源安全概率模型相链接来执行分析。该建模套件用于评估计划的能源系统对可能的破坏的恢复力。结果表明，如果以最佳方式实施能源安全措施，碳价格路径将对波罗的海国家的能源安全产生适度的影响。该研究基于在欧盟Horizo​​n 2020项目REEEM框架内进行的案例研究。