The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges. The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges. A hydrodynamic model, which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal gauge observations. To improve the calculation efficiency, the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran. The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model, but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%. A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts. The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model. Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases, ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided. The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut. The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts, providing better forecast products for decision-making, and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.

中文翻译：

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基于GPU技术的台风风暴潮总体预报

台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和轨迹的不确定性意味着有必要使用整体模型来预测台风风暴潮。在国家海洋环境预报中心运行的流体动力学模型被用于使用具有参数风压模型的最佳航迹数据对华南沿海地区进行浪涌模拟。结果与潮汐仪的观测结果非常吻合。为了提高计算效率，使用CUDA Fortran修改了流体动力学模型。计算结果与原始模型的计算结果几乎相同，但是计算时间减少了99％以上。通过将欧洲中距离天气预报中心的50条台风轨迹与三种可能的台风强度预报相结合，总共产生了150个台风病例。通过改进的水动力模型来计算喘振集合。基于针对不同台风情况的模拟风暴潮，可以提供合奏和概率预测产品。平均合奏结果和概率预测产品显示与观测到的台风山竹引起的风暴潮非常吻合。改进的模型非常适合于整体数值预测，为决策提供了更好的预测产品，并且可以轻松实现以在常规工作站上运行。基于针对不同台风情况的模拟风暴潮，可以提供合奏和概率预测产品。平均合奏结果和概率预测产品显示与观测到的台风山竹引起的风暴潮非常吻合。改进的模型非常适合于整体数值预测，为决策提供了更好的预测产品，并且可以轻松实现以在常规工作站上运行。基于针对不同台风情况的模拟风暴潮，可以提供合奏和概率预测产品。平均合奏结果和概率预测产品显示与观测到的台风山竹引起的风暴潮非常吻合。改进后的模型非常适合于整体数值预测，为决策提供了更好的预测产品，并且可以轻松实现以在常规工作站上运行。