Abstract

The probabilistic approach was applied to morphometric identification of Culex pipiens pipiens / torrentium mosquito females collected in the Sablino caves (Leningrad Province of Russia). The distances between landmarks of the radial wing veins r₍₂₊₃₎ and r₃ were measured, and the frequency distribution of the r₍₂₊₃₎ / r₃ wing vein index was analyzed. The obtained distribution had two maxima coinciding with the distribution maxima obtained earlier by other authors for the German populations of Culex pipiens pipiens and C. torrentium. Most specimens in the sample from the Sablino caves grouped at the maximum of the Culex pipiens normal distribution. We propose to use the Bayes factor (BF) to select those mosquito females which most likely belong to C. p. pipiens. In the sample studied, the BF value was greater than 10 for 72.5% of the specimens, which was interpreted as strong or very strong evidence in favor of C. p. pipiens. For 16.5% of individuals the BF value was greater than 0.1 and smaller than 10, providing moderate or weak evidence in favor of one of the two species. Overall, 11% of the females had BF values smaller than 0.1, this being strong or very strong evidence in favor of C. torrentium. To increase the reliability of C. p. pipiens selection, the specimens with the highest BF values should be chosen.

中文翻译：

---

基于形态翼特征的贝叶斯因子在淡色库蚊和山洪梭菌的鉴定中的应用

摘要

概率方法应用于从萨布利诺洞穴（俄罗斯列宁格勒省）收集的淡色库蚊/洪宫蚊的形态测定。测量了径向机翼静脉r _{（2 + 3）}和r _3的界标之间的距离，并分析了r _{（2 + 3）} / r ₃机翼静脉指数的频率分布。所获得的分布具有两个最大值，与其他作者先前获得的分布最大值有关，该分布最大值是针对德国库蚊（Pilexens pipiens pipiens）和山洪梭菌（C. torrentium）的德国种群的。。Sablino洞穴样品中的大多数标本都以淡色库蚊正态分布的最大值分组。我们建议使用贝叶斯因子（BF）来选择那些最有可能属于C. p。的蚊子。pipiens。在所研究的样本中，对于72.5％的样本，BF值大于10，这被认为是支持C. p。的有力或非常有力的证据。pipiens。对于16.5％的个体，BF值大于0.1且小于10，提供了中等或微弱的证据来支持两种物种之一。总体而言，11％的雌性的BF值小于0.1，这是有力或非常有力的证据证明了山洪梭菌。为了提高C. p。的可靠性。pipiens 选择时，应选择BF值最高的样品。