This paper presents a quantitative assessment model for the risk of entry of zoonotic bat-borne viruses into the European Union (EU). The model considers four routes of introduction: human travel, legal trade of products, live animal imports and illegal import of bushmeat and was applied to five virus outbreak scenarios. Two scenarios were considered for Zaire ebolavirus (wEBOV, cEBOV) and other scenarios for Hendra virus, Marburg virus (MARV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The use of the same framework and generic data sources for all EU Member States (MS) allows for a relative comparison of the probability of virus introduction and of the importance of the routes of introduction among MSs.

According to the model wEBOV posed the highest risk of an introduction event within the EU, followed by MARV and MERS-CoV. However, the main route of introduction differed, with wEBOV and MERS-CoV most likely through human travel and MARV through legal trade of foodstuffs. The relative risks to EU MSs as entry points also varied between outbreak scenarios, highlighting the heterogeneity in global trade and travel to the EU MSs. The model has the capability to allow for a continual updating of the risk estimate using new data as, and when, it becomes available.

The model provides an horizon scanning tool for use when available data are limited and, therefore, the absolute risk estimates often have high uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis suggested virus prevalence in bats has a large influence on the results; a 90% reduction in prevalence reduced the risk of introduction considerably and resulted in the relative ranking of MARV falling below that for MERS-CoV, due to this parameter disproportionately affecting the risk of introduction from the trade route over human travel.

本文提出了人畜共患蝙蝠传播病毒进入欧盟（EU）风险的定量评估模型。该模型考虑了四种引入途径：人类旅行、产品合法贸易、活动物进口和丛林肉非法进口，并应用于五种病毒爆发场景。考虑了扎伊尔埃博拉病毒（wEBOV、cEBOV）的两种情况以及亨德拉病毒、马尔堡病毒（MARV）和中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）的其他情况。对所有欧盟成员国（MS）使用相同的框架和通用数据源可以对病毒引入的概率以及各成员国之间引入途径的重要性进行相对比较。

根据模型，weBOV 在欧盟境内引入事件的风险最高，其次是 MARV 和 MERS-CoV。然而，主要的传播途径有所不同，weBOV 和 MERS-CoV 最有可能通过人类旅行传播，而 MARV 则通过合法的食品贸易传播。欧盟成员国作为入境点的相对风险也因疫情情况而异，凸显了欧盟成员国全球贸易和旅行的异质性。该模型能够在新数据可用时使用新数据持续更新风险估计。

该模型提供了一种水平扫描工具，可供在可用数据有限时使用，因此绝对风险估计通常具有很高的不确定性。敏感性分析表明，蝙蝠体内的病毒流行情况对结果有很大影响；流行率降低 90% 大大降低了引入风险，并导致 MARV 的相对排名低于 MERS-CoV，因为该参数不成比例地影响从人类旅行的贸易路线引入的风险。