This article focuses on two aspects of actuarial risk at sentencing, the accuracy of the instrument and the outcome it predicts. For theoretical reasons rooted in the cognitive decision‐making and sentencing literature, there is a danger that judges and other practitioners might come to overly rely on a “high risk” label or designation without appreciating the accuracy of the prediction or the actual outcome being predicted. Using sentencing and recidivism data from Pennsylvania (n = 10,000), two simple risk instruments are constructed to illustrate the critical importance of understanding accuracy and outcome before relying on the risk tool information.

中文翻译：

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精通风险评估：评估准确性和结果的必要性。

本文着重于判决时精算风险的两个方面，即工具的准确性及其预测的结果。出于扎根于认知决策和量刑文献的理论原因，存在法官和其他从业者可能过度依赖“高风险”标签或称号而又不了解预测准确性或所预测的实际结果的危险。 。利用宾夕法尼亚州的量刑和累犯数据（n = 10,000），构建了两种简单的风险工具，以说明在依赖风险工具信息之前理解准确性和结果的至关重要性。