Management of the non-renewable resource phosphorus (P) is critical to agricultural sustainability. The global P cycle is currently disturbed beyond planetary boundaries, mostly due to large excess P use in the agriculture of industrialized countries, while P is lacking in the Global South. The trajectories of P management and their effects on future sustainable agriculture were investigated for the case of France from 1850 to 2015 based on empirical data and simulations of two coupled biogeochemical models. Here we show that while French cropland soils have accumulated significant amounts of P, mainly sourced from former colonies or protectorates, P reserves in grassland soils have been depleted. Scenario calculations indicate that current P reserves may on average allow for another 60 years of agricultural production without mineral P application. In the light of a possible upcoming P scarcity, this time frame offers an opportunity for a transition towards regionally closed P loops and enhanced sustainability, allowing for fairer international distribution of P resources in the future.

中文翻译：

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磷遗产为农业生态转型提供了机会（法国 1850-2075）

不可再生资源磷 (P) 的管理对农业可持续性至关重要。全球磷循环目前受到超出地球边界的干扰，主要是由于工业化国家农业中大量过量使用磷，而全球南方则缺乏磷。基于经验数据和两个耦合生物地球化学模型的模拟，以法国为例，研究了 1850 年至 2015 年磷管理的轨迹及其对未来可持续农业的影响。在这里我们表明，虽然法国农田土壤积累了大量的 P，主要来自前殖民地或保护地，但草地土壤中的 P 储备已经枯竭。情景计算表明，目前的磷储量平均可以在不使用矿物磷的情况下再进行 60 年的农业生产。鉴于可能即将到来的磷短缺，这个时间框架为向区域封闭磷循环和增强可持续性提供了机会，从而在未来实现磷资源的更公平的国际分配。