In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over 50 years (2010–2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

中文翻译：

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美国新英格兰野生动物分布的替代景观未来的驱动因素和后果

在气候和土地快速转变的时代，了解未来变化如何影响自然系统变得越来越重要。情景研究可以提供理解变化影响所需的结构和视角，并有助于为管理和保护决策提供信息。我们实施了一种基于场景的方法来评估景观变化的两个高影响驱动因素如何影响美国东北部新英格兰地区受管理的野生动物物种（n = 10）的分布。我们使用专家派生的物种分布模型 (SDM) 和新英格兰景观未来项目 (NELFP) 开发的情景来估计物种分布在景观变化的各种轨迹 (n = 5) 下的变化。NELFP 情景围绕两个主要驱动因素构建 - 社会经济连通性 (SEC) 和自然资源规划与创新 (NRPI) - 并为新英格兰地区 50 年（2010-2060 年）可能发生的变化提供了合理的替代方案。到 2060 年，我们的模型通常会导致物种出现和丰富度下降。大多数物种（10 种中的 7 种）在所有 NELFP 情景中都经历了区域发生率的下降，并且一种物种在所有情景中的平均区域发生率预计会增加。我们的结果表明，与基线预测相比，NRPI 和 SEC 驱动因素强烈影响了预测分布变化。NRPI 对五种物种（土狼、驼鹿、条纹臭鼬、白尾鹿和野火鸡）的分布变化影响较大，而SEC对四种物种（美洲黑熊、山猫、浣熊和红狐）的影响更大；一个物种（灰狐）同样受到 NRPI 和 SEC 的影响。这些结果强调了在解决分布变化问题时整合自然资源规划和社会经济因素的重要性，并提供可以为主动管理和保护规划提供信息的见解。