Patterns of change in neighborhoods can be discordantly different, even within the same city district. A little understood factor in how urban neighborhoods form and grow is structural inertia, which is the tendency of an urban area to resist change due to its existing physical and socio-economic fabric. This study explores how patterns of buildings, plots, blocks, and streets affect change or inertia in neighborhoods over time. We integrate Conzenian morphology and space syntax approaches within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to study two historic neighborhoods in Charlotte and Raleigh, N.C. at four points in time over a 96-year span. Aerial images, historic maps, and GIS sources help to create spatial configuration and building data for each time period. We then analyze these data to identify statistical and map-pattern morphological and syntactic relationships both in the aggregate and in detail. Our research finds that most of the independent variables of block size, plot size, building footprint, global integration, local integration, and connectivity predicted long-term change measured in building inventory in almost every occurrence. Our study also suggests design implications and possible future tools and research for measuring change and its relation to the physical characteristics of our cities.

中文翻译：

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邻里动态和长期变化

即使在同一市区内，社区的变化方式也可能差异很大。关于城市社区如何形成和增长的一个鲜为人知的因素是结构惯性，这是城市地区由于其现有的物理和社会经济结构而抵制变化的趋势。这项研究探索了建筑物，地块，街区和街道的模式如何随着时间的变化影响邻里的变化或惯性。我们在地理信息系统（GIS）框架中整合了Conzenian形态学和空间语法方法，以研究96年跨度的四个时间点在北卡罗来纳州夏洛特和罗利的两个历史街区。航拍图像，历史地图和GIS资源有助于在每个时间段创建空间配置和建筑数据。然后，我们对这些数据进行分析，以识别总体和详细情况下的统计以及地图模式的形态和句法关系。我们的研究发现，大多数独立变量，包括块大小，地块大小，建筑物占地面积，全局集成，局部集成和连接性，都预测了几乎每一次发生在建筑库存中的长期变化。我们的研究还提出了设计意义以及可能的未来工具和研究，以衡量变化及其与城市物理特征的关系。连通性预测了几乎每一次发生在建筑库存中的长期变化。我们的研究还提出了设计意义以及可能的未来工具和研究，以衡量变化及其与城市物理特征的关系。连通性预测了几乎每一次发生在建筑库存中的长期变化。我们的研究还提出了设计意义以及可能的未来工具和研究，以衡量变化及其与城市物理特征的关系。