Multiple linear regression (MLR) models for predicting chronic aluminum toxicity to a cladoceran (Ceriodaphnia dubia) and a fish (Pimephales promelas) as a function of 3 toxicity‐modifying factors (TMFs)—dissolved organic carbon (DOC), pH, and hardness—have been published previously. However, the range over which data for these TMFs were available was somewhat limited. To address this limitation, additional chronic toxicity tests with these species were subsequently conducted to expand the DOC range up to 12 mg/L, the pH range up to 8.7, and the hardness range up to 428 mg/L. The additional toxicity data were used to update the chronic MLR models. The adjusted R² for the C. dubia 20% effect concentration (EC20) model increased from 0.71 to 0.92 with the additional toxicity data, and the predicted R² increased from 0.57 to 0.89. For P. promelas, the adjusted R² increased from 0.87 to 0.92 and the predicted R² increased from 0.72 to 0.87. The high predicted R² relative to the adjusted R² indicates that the models for both species are not overly parameterized. When data for C. dubia and P. promelas were pooled, the adjusted R² values were comparable to the species‐specific models (0.90 and 0.88 for C. dubia and P. promelas, respectively). This indicates that chronic aluminum EC20s for C. dubia and P. promelas respond similarly to variation in DOC, pH, and hardness. Overall, the pooled model predicted EC20s that were within a factor of 2 of observed in 100% of the C. dubia tests and 94% of the P. promelas tests. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:1724–1736. © 2020 SETAC

中文翻译：

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更新了用于预测慢性铝对淡水水生生物毒性的多重线性回归模型，并制定了水质准则。

多元线性回归（MLR）模型预测3种毒性修饰因子（TMFs）的函数对刺柏（Ceriodaphnia dubia）和鱼类（Pimephales promelas）的慢性铝毒性-溶解有机碳（DOC），pH和硬度-之前已发布。但是，这些TMF的可用数据范围受到一定限制。为了解决这一局限性，随后对这些物种进行了其他慢性毒性试验，以扩大DOC范围至12 mg / L，pH范围至8.7和硬度范围至428 mg / L。其他毒性数据用于更新慢性MLR模型。调整后的C.dubia C R ²具有附加毒性数据的20％效应浓度（EC20）模型从0.71增加到0.92，而预测的R ²从0.57增加到0.89。对于P. promelas，调节后的R ²从0.87增加到0.92，而预测的R ²从0.72增加到0.87。高预测- [R ²相对于调整- [R ²表明，对于这两个物种的模型不会过度参数化。汇总了C. dubia和P. promelas的数据后，调整后的R ²值可与特定物种的模型相比较（0.90和0.88）C. dubia和P. promelas）。这表明慢性铝EC20s对C. dubia和P. promelas的响应类似于DOC，pH和硬度的变化。总体而言，汇集模型预测在100％的观察到，是2的因子内EC20s C.鳖试验和94％的P.鲦测试。2020年《环境毒理学》； 39：1724-1736。©2020 SETAC