While considerable research has investigated the importance of the public’s understanding of the scientific consensus on climate change beliefs and policy support, only recently have scholars begun to evaluate the role of social consensus perceptions, e.g., what others in the same group think. People receive information about these norms directly from social interactions, such as with neighbors and friends, but also indirectly from media, as in reporting on national public opinion statistics. We assess how well the public understands the level of social consensus across different geographic scales—regional, state, and national—and test whether understanding these norms differentially relates to climate and energy policy support. Among a representative sample of Maryland adults surveyed in 2015 (n = 1547), nearly half underestimated the extent of the social consensus about climate change within their region, state, and country. Individuals’ consensus perceptions were significantly related to the true social consensus—estimated through survey data—at the regional scale; however, the size of the relationship was small. We found that consensus perceptions across all geographic levels related to support for climate policy, as mediated by climate belief certainty. But perceptions of social consensus at smaller spatial scales—e.g., regional—appear to have larger effects on public opinion. The results of this study suggest both the importance—and limitations—of geographies of social consensus and the role of attitudinal certainty as a mediator for this relationship. Conveying localized social consensus information may promote public support of climate policy.

中文翻译：

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区域层面对社会共识的看法与美国马里兰州气候政策的优先次序和支持有关

尽管大量研究调查了公众了解关于气候变化信念和政策支持的科学共识的重要性，但直到最近，学者才开始评估社会共识观念的作用，例如同一组中其他人的看法。人们直接从与邻居和朋友的社交互动中获得有关这些规范的信息，但也可以从媒体间接获得有关这些规范的信息，例如在报告国家舆论统计数据时。我们评估公众对跨地区，州和国家级不同地理尺度的社会共识水平的理解程度，并测试对这些规范的理解是否与气候和能源政策支持存在差异。在2015年接受调查的马里兰州成年人的代表性样本中（n = 1547），将近一半的人低估了他们所在地区，州和国家对气候变化的社会共识程度。个人的共识认知与真正的社会共识（通过调查数据估计）在区域范围内有很大关系；但是，这种关系的规模很小。我们发现，由气候信念确定性介导的所有地理层面的共识都与对气候政策的支持有关。但是，在较小的空间尺度（例如区域）对社会共识的认识似乎对公众舆论产生了更大的影响。这项研究的结果表明，社会共识地理的重要性和局限性以及态度确定性作为这种关系的中介者的作用。