Abstract The degree of biological variability within a population is an important factor for its ecological success. Yet, individual-based population models (IBMs) that utilize the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory as a mechanistic basis to simulate an individual's life history, largely rely on rule-of-thumb estimates of inter-individual variability of their parameter values. In this study, we explored how data from previous life-history experiments with the copepod Nitocra spinipes could be used to make realistic estimates of variability in DEB parameter values for this species. We specifically investigated to which one of 12 possible parameters variability should be added, and what shape and scale its probability distribution should have, to most accurately reproduce the experimental data's variation with model simulations. The best result was achieved by drawing the parameter ‘surface-area-specific maximum assimilation rate’ from a log-normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.15 or by drawing the maturity thresholds for birth and puberty (assuming proportionality between the two) from a log-normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.40. In both cases, the model not only accurately reproduced the variation observed in development time data (which had been used in the fitting process) but also gave adequate predictions of the variation observed in brood size data (which had not been used for fitting). Although the findings of this study apply to one species only, the methods presented here are a proof of principle for how the question of intra-specific variability in a DEB model, for any species, can be addressed in a simple, yet purposeful manner.

中文翻译：

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从现有的生活史数据估计桡足类 Nitocra 刺的动态能量预算模型参数的个体差异

摘要 种群内的生物变异程度是其生态成功的重要因素。然而，利用动态能量预算 (DEB) 理论作为机械基础来模拟个人生活史的基于个体的人口模型 (IBM)，在很大程度上依赖于对其参数值的个体间变异性的经验法则估计。在这项研究中，我们探讨了如何使用桡足类 Nitocra spinipes 以前的生活史实验数据来对该物种的 DEB 参数值的变异性进行实际估计。我们专门研究了 12 个可能的参数可变性应该添加到哪一个，以及它的概率分布应该具有什么样的形状和尺度，以最准确地通过模型模拟再现实验数据的变化。最好的结果是通过从标准差为 0.15 的对数正态分布中提取参数“特定于表面积的最大同化率”或通过从标准差为 0.40 的对数正态分布。在这两种情况下，该模型不仅准确地再现了在发育时间数据（已用于拟合过程）中观察到的变化，而且对在育雏尺寸数据（未用于拟合）中观察到的变化给出了足够的预测。尽管本研究的结果仅适用于一个物种，但此处介绍的方法证明了如何以简单而有目的的方式解决任何物种的 DEB 模型中的种内变异问题。