Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998-2018).,Environmental Science & Technology

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Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (1998-2018).
Environmental Science & Technology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-03 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c01764
Melanie S Hammer _{1,

2} , Aaron van Donkelaar _{1,

2} , Chi Li _{2,

3} , Alexei Lyapustin _{4,

5} , Andrew M Sayer _{4,

5} , N Christina Hsu ₄ , Robert C Levy ₄ , Michael J Garay ₆ , Olga V Kalashnikova ₆ , Ralph A Kahn ₄ , Michael Brauer _{7,

8} , Joshua S Apte ₉ , Daven K Henze ₁₀ , Li Zhang _{11,

12} , Qiang Zhang _{13,

14} , Bonne Ford ₁₅ , Jeffrey R Pierce ₁₅ , Randall V Martin _{1,

2,

16}

Affiliation

Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63130, United States.
Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, N.S. B3H3J5, Canada.
Department of Chemistry, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720, United States.
Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, United States.
Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, United States.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125-0002, United States.
School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, 2206 East Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T1Z3, Canada.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle 98121, United States.
Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712, United States.
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado 80309, United States.
CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, United States.
Global Systems Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado 80309, United States.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, Beijing 100084, China.
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523-1019, United States.
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.

Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM_2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998–2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM_2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM_2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM_2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R² = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM_2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM_2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R² = 0.90–0.92; slope = 0.90–0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (−0.28 ± 0.03 μg/m³/yr), Europe (−0.15 ± 0.03 μg/m³/yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 μg/m³/yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 μg/m³/yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 μg/m³/yr) for India over 2005–2013 and the negative trend (−3.37 ± 0.38 μg/m³/yr) for China over 2011–2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.

更新日期：2020-07-07

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