The aim of this study is to elaborate on an integrated approach for transport planning in railway passenger transport in the case of uncertainty. The methodology consists of four stages. In the first stage, the parameters of a multi-criteria model in the case of uncertainty were determined. This includes defining the criteria for selection of a transport plan; formulation of the alternatives of the transport plan; formulation of the strategies and probability variants of passenger flow variation for each strategy. In the second stage, the weights of the probability variants of the strategies for change in passenger flow were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. The alternatives of the transport plan were ranked by applying the sequential interactive modeling for urban systems (SIMUS) method based on linear programming. The results for the values of the criterion of ranking obtained through the SIMUS method and the weights of the variants of passenger flow variation calculated with the AHP method were used as input in the expected values in the decision tree. The selection of a suitable alternative in the case of uncertainty was conducted in the third stage by applying the decision tree method. In the fourth stage, verification of the results was made using Laplace’s criterion and Hurwitz’s criterion. The integrated multi-criteria approach was applied for Bulgaria’s railway network. The multi-criteria approach elaborated herein could be used for decision-making in the case of uncertainty about passenger flow; to investigate different strategies of passenger flow variation and to make decisions in case of instability of passenger flow or lack of sufficient travel data.

中文翻译：

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不确定情况下铁路客运规划的综合多标准方法

本研究的目的是阐述在不确定情况下铁路客运运输规划的综合方法。该方法包括四个阶段。在第一阶段，确定不确定情况下多标准模型的参数。这包括确定选择运输计划的标准；制定运输计划的备选方案；为每个策略制定策略和客流变化的概率变量。第二阶段，采用层次分析法（AHP）确定客流变化策略概率变量的权重。通过应用基于线性规划的城市系统序列交互模型 (SIMUS) 方法，对交通计划的备选方案进行排名。通过SIMUS方法得到的排序标准值的结果和AHP方法计算的客流变化变量的权重被用作决策树中期望值的输入。在不确定的情况下选择合适的替代方案是在第三阶段通过应用决策树方法进行的。在第四阶段，使用拉普拉斯准则和赫尔维茨准则对结果进行验证。保加利亚的铁路网络采用了综合的多标准方法。在客流不确定的情况下，本文阐述的多标准方法可用于决策；