There are genuine worldwide concerns regarding the contribution of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Passenger electric vehicles (EVs) are considered as a viable solution to the rapidly increasing global GHG emissions from ICE vehicles. This study investigated the future impact of perceived adoption of electric vehicles in Gauteng Province of South Africa on carbon emissions. Estimations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions were made with data from 2000 to 2018 to provide a reference period for the analysis. Projections of CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2030 were undertaken using three future cases, namely: mitigation, business as usual, and high economic growth based on the projected 20% population of electric vehicles, and four scenarios representing varying proportions of different types of EVs. The results showed an increasingly significant trend in CO₂ emissions during the reference period. CO₂ emissions estimated using the mitigation case showed an overall reduction in emissions of between 30% and 35%, depending on the scenario. The business as usual case showed an increase in emissions of 1%–5% by 2030. The high economic growth case showed a high increase in CO₂ emissions of 35%–41% by 2030. The study indicates a need to accelerate the adoption of EVs with a 20% projection of the vehicle population still not enough to make a meaningful contribution towards decreasing CO₂ emissions from passenger vehicles.

中文翻译：

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南非豪登省由于采用电动汽车而导致的预计直接二氧化碳排放量的减少

关于内燃机（ICE）车辆对温室气体（GHG）排放的贡献，全球存在真正的担忧。乘用电动汽车（EV）被认为是解决ICE汽车迅速增加的全球温室气体排放的可行解决方案。这项研究调查了南非豪登省电动汽车的采用对碳排放量的未来影响。利用2000年至2018年的数据估算了二氧化碳（CO ₂）的排放量，为分析提供了参考期。CO _2的投影2020年至2030年的排放量使用了三种未来案例，分别是：减缓，一切照旧，基于预计20％的电动汽车人口的高经济增长，以及四种代表不同类型电动汽车比例的情景。结果表明，在参考期内，CO ₂排放量的趋势日益显着。根据具体情况，使用缓解案例估算的CO ₂排放量显示总体排放量减少了30％至35％。与往常一样，到2030年，排放量增加1％–5％。经济高增长的情况下，CO _2的增加量很大到2030年，二氧化碳排放量将达到35％–41％。研究表明，有必要以20％的人口预测仍不足以为减少乘用车的CO ₂排放做出有意义的贡献，从而加快电动汽车的采用。