To investigate the impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrology, the Don catchment in Yorkshire, UK, was selected. A physically based distributed catchment‐scale (DiCaSM) model was applied. The model simulates surface runoff, groundwater recharge and drought indicators such as soil moisture deficit SMD, wetness index WI and reconnaissance drought index RDI. The model's goodness of fit using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency factor was >91% for the calibration period (2011–2012) and 83% for the validation period (1966–2012). Under different climate change scenarios, the greatest decrease in stream flow and groundwater recharge was projected under medium‐ and high‐emission scenarios. Climate change scenarios projected an increase in evapotranspiration and SMD, especially in the latter half of the current century. Increasing the woodland area had the most significant impact, reducing stream flow by 17% and groundwater recharge by 22%. Urbanization could lead to increase in stream flow and groundwater recharge. The climate change impact on stream flow and groundwater recharge was more significant than land use change. Drought indices SMD, WI and RDI projected an increase in the severity and frequency of drought events under future climatic change, especially under high‐emission scenarios.

中文翻译：

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气候和土地利用变化如何影响水循环？包括使用可靠干旱指数预测未来干旱事件的建模研究

为了调查气候和土地利用变化对水文的影响，选择了英国约克郡的唐流域。应用了基于物理的分布式流域尺度 (DiCaSM) 模型。该模型模拟地表径流、地下水补给和干旱指标，如土壤水分亏缺 SMD、湿度指数 WI 和侦察干旱指数 RDI。使用 Nash-Sutcliffe 效率因子的模型拟合优度在校准期（2011-2012 年）>91%，在验证期（1966-2012 年）为 83%。在不同的气候变化情景下，预计中高排放情景下河流流量和地下水补给的减少幅度最大。气候变化情景预测蒸散量和 SMD 会增加，尤其是在本世纪下半叶。增加林地面积的影响最为显着，河流流量减少 17%，地下水补给量减少 22%。城市化可能导致河流流量和地下水补给的增加。气候变化对河流流量和地下水补给的影响比土地利用变化更显着。干旱指数 SMD、WI 和 RDI 预测未来气候变化下干旱事件的严重程度和频率会增加，尤其是在高排放情景下。