Understanding how tree species will respond to a future climate requires reliable and quantitative estimates of intra‐specific variation under current climate conditions. We studied three 10‐year‐old common garden experiments established across a rainfall and drought gradient planted with nearly 10,000 pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) trees from ten provenances with known family structure. We aimed at disentangling adaptive and plastic responses for growth (height and diameter at breast height) as well as for leaf and wood functional traits related to adaptation to dry environments. We used restricted maximum likelihood approaches to assess additive genetic variation expressed as narrow‐sense heritability (h²), quantitative trait differentiation among provenances (Q_ST), and genotype‐by‐environment interactions (GxE). We found strong and significant patterns of local adaptation in growth in all three common gardens, suggesting that transfer of seed material should not exceed a climatic distance of approximately 1°C under current climatic conditions, while transfer along precipitation gradients seems to be less stringent. Moreover, heritability reached 0.64 for tree height and 0.67 for dbh at the dry margin of the testing spectrum, suggesting significant additive genetic variation of potential use for future selection and tree breeding. GxE interactions in growth were significant and explained less phenotypic variation than origin of seed source (4% versus 10%). Functional trait variation among provenances was partly related to drought regimes at provenances origins but had moderate explanatory power for growth. We conclude that directional selection, either naturally or through breeding, is the most likely and feasible outcome for pedunculate oak to adapt to warmer and drier climate conditions in the future.

中文翻译：

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在一个 10 年的普通花园实验中，用带花梗橡树 (Quercus robur L.) 评估生长和功能性状的适应性和可塑性反应，表明定向选择可以驱动气候适应


了解树种如何应对未来气候需要对当前气候条件下的种内变化进行可靠和定量的估计。我们研究了三个 10 年历史的常见花园实验，这些实验跨越降雨和干旱梯度，种植了来自 10 个已知科结构来源的近 10,000 棵有花梗橡树 ( Quercus robur L.)。我们的目标是解开生长（高度和胸径）的适应性和可塑性反应，以及与适应干燥环境相关的叶子和木材功能特征。我们使用限制最大似然方法来评估加性遗传变异，表示为狭义遗传力（h ² ）、种源间数量性状差异（Q _ST ）和基因型与环境的相互作用（GxE）。我们在所有三个常见花园中发现了强烈而显着的生长局部适应模式，这表明在当前气候条件下种子材料的转移不应超过约1°C的气候距离，而沿降水梯度的转移似乎不太严格。此外，在测试谱的干裕度处，树高的遗传力达到0.64，胸径的遗传力达到0.67，这表明未来选择和树木育种的潜在用途具有显着的附加遗传变异。生长过程中的 GxE 相互作用很显着，并且解释的表型变异比种子来源的起源少（4% 与 10%）。种源之间的功能性状变异部分与种源起源的干旱状况有关，但对生长的解释力中等。 我们的结论是，自然或通过育种的定向选择是有蒂橡树适应未来温暖和干燥气候条件的最有可能和可行的结果。