Endogeneity is a potential anomaly in econometric models, which may cause inconsistent parameter estimates. Transport models are prone to this problem and applications that properly correct for it are scarce. This paper focuses on how to address this issue in the case of strategic urban mode choice models (i.e., the third stage of classic strategic transport models), possibly the main tool for the assessment of costly transport projects. To address this problem, we propose and validate, for the first time, adequate instruments that may be obtained from data that is already available in this context. The proposed method is implemented using the Control Function approach, which we use to detect and correct for endogeneity in a case study in Valparaiso, Chile. The effects arising from the neglected endogeneity in this case study reflect on an overestimation between 26–49% of the subjective value of time and an underestimation of 33–75% of modal elasticities.

中文翻译：

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解决战略性城市模式选择模型中的内生性

内生性是计量经济模型中的一个潜在异常，它可能导致参数估计不一致。传输模型很容易出现这个问题，而能够正确纠正它的应用程序很少。本文重点讨论如何在战略城市模式选择模型（即经典战略交通模型的第三阶段）的情况下解决这个问题，这可能是评估成本高昂的交通项目的主要工具。为了解决这个问题，我们首次提出并验证了可以从在此背景下已经可用的数据中获得的适当工具。所提出的方法是使用控制函数方法实现的，我们用它来检测和纠正智利瓦尔帕莱索案例研究中的内生性。