Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It is projected that the greatest warming across sub-Saharan Africa will occur over the Sahel, the monsoon season will become more persistent into late summer and autumn, short rains in the Horn of Africa (HOA) will intensify, and leaf area index will increase across the HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. a multivariate statistical approach, is applied to the model output over sub-Saharan Africa in order to explore the oceanic and terrestrial drivers of regional climate. The models indicate that the study region’s climate variability is dominated by oceanic drivers, with secondary contributions from soil moisture and very modest impacts from vegetation. Overall, the general model consensus of future projections indicates a concerning diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate based on key oceanic and terrestrial predictors and an elevated role of the land surface (associated with soil moisture anomalies) compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability.

尽管对区域气候变化预测，极端事件统计数据和季节性气候可预测性有影响，但尚未充分研究海洋-陆地-大气相互作用的符号和强度的未来变化。针对这种不足，本研究集中于以下方面对温室效应增强的预计响应：（1）大气和陆地表面的平均状态；（2）撒哈拉以南气候变化的海洋和陆地驱动因素；（3）撒哈拉以南非洲地区的总体季节性气候可预测性，该地区以其明显的陆-气耦合而闻名。分析的重点是20世纪末至21世纪耦合模型比较项目第五阶段的23种地球系统模型的输出。预计撒哈拉以南非洲地区将在萨赫勒地区出现最大的变暖，季风季节将持续到夏末和秋季，非洲之角（HOA）的短雨将会加剧，叶面积指数将会增加整个HOA。逐步广义均衡反馈评估（即多元统计方法）被应用于撒哈拉以南非洲的模型输出，以探索区域气候的海洋和陆地驱动因素。这些模型表明，研究区域的气候变化主要受海洋驱动因素的影响，其次要原因是土壤水分和植被的适度影响。总体，