Lake Tuz is a hypersaline lake located on the Central Anatolia plateau. The lake is one of the most important wetlands in Turkey, due to its unique ecosystem and biota, but it has been degraded due to the loss of most of its water-covered area. This study analyzes the changes at the surface of Lake Tuz over the past 32 years and discusses the relationship between this change and climatic factors. This study was made in two parts: (1) surface changes of the lake during the period 1985–2016 were evaluated based on satellite images, and (2) the relationship between surface change and climatic factors was studied using standardized precipitation index (SPI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Erinç aridity index (EAI). Even though standardized spring precipitation at Lake Tuz Basin have not revealed any statistically significant long-term trend during the study period, it tended to decrease apparently during a long period from the year 2001 to 2013. This drought period was also evident in the series of 12-month PDSI during the 2002–2009 periods along with the years of 2012 and 2013. It is detected a statistically significant negative relationship between the salt-covered areas and EAI (r = − 0.63) in the long term (1985–2016). For the first period prior to the 2000s, the relationship between EAI and the salt-covered area was weaker (r = − 0.46), mostly because the lake was not significantly affected by the lack of precipitation yet due to the sufficient groundwater level. Since about 2000, groundwater withdrawals, rising temperatures, and severe and more frequent droughts strengthened the relationship between the lake’s salt-covered area and EAI (r = − 0.88). Precipitation records of Lake Tuz Basin showed a significant negative relationship with the indices of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and winter North Sea Caspian Pattern during the study period. The persistence of NAO and AO indices in a positive phase over the last 20 years has partly explained the decrease in the water-covered area observed in the lake.

中文翻译：

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1985–2016年气候变化对图兹湖（土耳其）表面的影响

图兹湖是位于安纳托利亚中部高原的高盐湖。由于其独特的生态系统和生物区系，该湖是土耳其最重要的湿地之一，但由于其大部分水覆盖面积的丧失，该湖已退化。这项研究分析了过去32年中图兹湖表面的变化，并讨论了这种变化与气候因素之间的关系。这项研究分为两个部分：（1）基于卫星图像评估了1985-2016年期间湖泊的表面变化，（2）使用标准化降水指数（SPI）研究了表面变化与气候因子之间的关系。 ，帕尔默干旱严重度指数（PDSI）和艾琳·干旱度指数（EAI）。r  = − 0.63）从长期来看（1985–2016）。在2000年代之前的第一个时期，EAI与盐覆盖面积之间的关系较弱（r  = − 0.46），这主要是由于缺乏足够的降水，但由于地下水位足够，该湖并未受到显着影响。自2000年左右以来，地下水的抽取，气温升高以及严重且更频繁的干旱加强了该湖盐覆盖区与EAI（r = − 0.88）。在研究期间，图兹湖盆地的降水记录显示与北大西洋涛动指数（NAO），北极涛动指数（AO）和冬季北海里海格局呈显着负相关。在过去的20年中，NAO和AO指数一直处于积极状态，这在一定程度上解释了湖泊中水覆盖面积的减少。