The study was carried out to assess the impact of climate change on potato productivity to develop adaptation strategies in Punjab, using crop growth simulation models for future climate scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2080) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 6.0. Three potato cultivars belonging to distinct maturity groups, late (Kufri Badshah), medium (Kufri Jyoti) and early (Kufri Pukhraj), were used. Simulation results showed that under RCP 4.5, increase in CO₂ concentration is expected to bring an increase in productivity of Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj by 6.7, 7.2 and 7.1% in 2030; 10.8, 11.6 and 11.4% in 2050; and 14.0, 15.0 and 14.8% in 2080. However, the corresponding increase in temperature is likely to decline the mean productivity by 2.6, 3.8 and 3.8% in 2030; 6.5, 8.7 and 9.3% in 2050; and 14.4, 17.6 and 18.4% in 2080, for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti and Kufri Pukhraj. But, when combined influence of temperature and CO₂ was considered, the productivity of potato will not be affected in 2030 and 2050 over the baseline scenario but is expected to decline in 2080 (Kufri Badshah − 1.9%, Kufri Jyoti − 4.1% and Kufri Pukhraj − 5.2%). Similarly, for RCP 6.0, increased CO₂ concentration is expected to increase the mean productivity by 6.5% in 2030, 10.5% in 2050 and 19.4% in 2080. However, yield increase due to CO₂ is negated by increased temperature with respective values of 2.2, 4.4 and 14.2%. However, under combined effect for RCP 6.0, productivity of potato cultivars is not likely to be affected over the baseline scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Results further revealed that by changing the dates of planting or selection of suitable cultivars, yield can increase in 2030 by 7.4% in Kufri Badshah and 7.8 and 1.5% in Kufri Pukhraj in 2050 and 2080, under RCP 4.5. Similarly, adaptation may increase mean yield up to 9.1% for Kufri Pukhraj in 2030, 9.8% for Kufri Badshah in 2050 and 8.2% for Kufri Badshah and Kufri Jyoti in 2080 under RCP 6.0. Further, with proper irrigation and nitrogen management practices, yield can be increased.

这项研究是为了评估旁遮普邦气候变化对马铃薯生产力的影响，以制定适应策略，并在代表性浓度途径（RCPs）4.5和6.0下，针对未来气候情景（2030、2050和2080）使用了作物生长模拟模型。使用了三个属于不同成熟度组的马铃薯品种，分别为晚（Kufri Badshah），中（Kufri Jyoti）和早（Kufri Pukhraj）。模拟结果表明，在RCP 4.5下，CO ₂浓度的增加有望提高Kufri Badshah，Kufri Jyoti和Kufri Pukhraj的生产率。2030年分别增长6.7％，7.2％和7.1％; 2050年分别为10.8％，11.6和11.4％；2080年分别为14.0、15.0和14.8％。然而，温度的相应升高很可能使2030年的平均生产率下降2.6、3.8和3.8％；2050年分别为6.5％，8.7％和9.3％；以及2080年Kufri Badshah，Kufri Jyoti和Kufri Pukhraj的14.4％，17.6％和18.4％。但是，考虑到温度和CO _2的综合影响，到2030年和2050年，马铃薯的生产力不会超过基准情景，但预计到2080年将下降（Kufri Badshah -1.9％，Kufri Jyoti -4.1％和Kufri Pukhraj -5.2％）。同样，对于RCP 6.0，增加的CO ₂预计到2030年，CO ₂的平均生产率将提高6.5％，到2050年将达到10.5％，到2080年将达到19.4％。但是，由于温度升高导致CO ₂产量增加而被抵消，温度分别为2.2、4.4和14.2％。但是，在RCP 6.0的综合影响下，在2030年，2050年和2080年的基准情景下，马铃薯品种的生产力不太可能受到影响。结果进一步表明，通过改变播种日期或选择合适的品种，马铃薯的产量会增加。根据RCP 4.5，到2030年，库夫里·巴德沙（Kufri Badshah）分别增长7.4％，库夫里·普赫拉赫（Kufri Pukhraj）分别为7.8和1.5％。同样，适应措施可能会在2030年使Kufri Pukhraj的平均产量提高9.1％，对Kufri Badshah的平均产量提高9.8％根据RCP 6.0 ，Kufri Badshah和Kufri Jyoti的收入将在2050年达到8.2％。此外，通过适当的灌溉和氮素管理措施，可以提高产量。