Context Sustaining ecosystem services requires enhanced understanding of their spatial–temporal dynamics and responses to drivers. To date, the majority of research has focused on snapshots of ecosystem services, and their spatial–temporal variability has seldom been studied. Objectives We aimed to address: (i) How is variability in ecosystem services partitioned among ‘space’ and ‘time’ components? (ii) Which ecosystem services are spatially/temporally coherent, and which are space–time incoherent? (iii) Are there consistent patterns in ecosystem service variability between urban- and rural-dominated landscapes? Methods Biophysical modeling was used to quantify food, water, and biogeochemical-related services from 2011 to 2070 under future scenarios. Linear mixed-effects models and variance partitioning were used to analyze spatial and temporal variability. Results Food production, water quality and flood regulation services were overall more variable than climate regulation and freshwater supply. ‘Space’ contributed to a majority of variations across most services, highlighting dominant importance of location-specific factors for service supply. Significant space–time interactions existed for water quality and soil carbon storage, indicating interactive effects between location- and time-specific factors. Variation in the relative controls of ‘space’ vs. ‘time’ factors between urban- and rural-dominated subwatersheds suggests that targeting different key drivers is needed for successful management of ecosystem services in urban vs. rural landscapes. Conclusions Our research reveals relative importance of underlying ‘space’ and ‘time’ controls for diverse ecosystem services. Our study presents a framework to investigate spatial–temporal variability of ecosystem services, and provides theoretical and practical implications for anticipating and managing the dynamics of future ecosystem services at the watershed scale.

中文翻译：

---

农业景观中未来生态系统服务的时空变异性

背景 维持生态系统服务需要进一步了解其时空动态和对驱动因素的反应。迄今为止，大多数研究都集中在生态系统服务的快照上，很少研究它们的时空变异性。目标 我们旨在解决： (i) 生态系统服务的可变性如何在“空间”和“时间”组成部分之间进行划分？(ii) 哪些生态系统服务在空间/时间上是连贯的，哪些是时空不连贯的？(iii) 城市主导景观和农村主导景观之间的生态系统服务变化模式是否一致？方法 使用生物物理模型量化未来情景下 2011 年至 2070 年的食物、水和生物地球化学相关服务。线性混合效应模型和方差分区用于分析时空变异性。结果 粮食生产、水质和洪水调节服务总体上比气候调节和淡水供应变化更大。“空间”促成了大多数服务的大部分变化，突出了特定于位置的因素对服务供应的主导重要性。水质和土壤碳储存存在显着的时空相互作用，表明位置和时间特定因素之间存在相互作用。城市和农村主导的子流域之间“空间”与“时间”因素的相对控制的变化表明，要成功管理城市与农村景观中的生态系统服务，需要针对不同的关键驱动因素。结论 我们的研究揭示了潜在的“空间”和“时间”控制对于不同生态系统服务的相对重要性。我们的研究提出了一个研究生态系统服务时空变异性的框架，并为预测和管理流域尺度未来生态系统服务的动态提供了理论和实践意义。