ABSTRACT Cape Town recently suffered severe water shortages triggered by a multi-year drought. These shortages were aggravated by reliance on demand management to balance supply and demand in the rapidly growing city. This article considers the interaction between the supply-side planning system and the less systematic approach used to plan and manage what is characterized as the demand-side system. Political priorities and preferences as well as perceptions of and attitudes towards risk influenced demand forecasts and development decisions. The experience illustrates the importance of a more systematic approach to demand forecasting to reduce the risk of supply failures.

中文翻译：

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开普敦 2015-2018 年水危机期间需求管理的一些系统观点

摘要 开普敦最近因多年干旱而严重缺水。依赖需求管理来平衡快速发展的城市的供需，加剧了这些短缺。本文考虑了供应方计划系统与用于计划和管理特征为需求方系统的不太系统的方法之间的相互作用。政治优先事项和偏好以及对风险的看法和态度影响了需求预测和发展决策。经验说明了采用更系统的需求预测方法对降低供应故障风险的重要性。