Due to the randomness and weak symmetry of traffic accidents occurring in the expressway maintenance operation area, it is difficult to use the number of traffic accidents to evaluate the safety of maintenance operation areas. In this paper, the traffic characteristics and traffic conflicts of the maintenance operation area with the lane closed on the outside of the two-way four-lane expressway are studied. By using the statistical method, the distribution of vehicle speed and time headway in different areas of the maintenance operation area are analyzed, and the queuing characteristics of vehicles in the upstream transition zone of the expressway are determined. Based on improved time to collision (TTC) model, the traffic conflict severity of expressway maintenance operation area is divided. The negative binomial distribution is used to establish a traffic conflict prediction model for the enclosed maintenance area of the outer lane of the expressway, and the validity of the traffic conflict prediction model is verified based on the average absolute error percentage (MAPE). The research results show that: when the 0 < TTC < 1.3 s, the traffic conflict is serious conflict; when 1.3 s < TTC, the traffic conflict is non-serious conflict. Furthermore, the traffic conflict prediction model has high accuracy, the MAPE of the warning area and the upstream transition area are 10.8% and 5.0%, respectively.

中文翻译：

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高速公路外封闭车道交通冲突预测模型研究

由于高速公路养护作业区发生交通事故的随机性和弱对称性，难以用交通事故数来评价养护作业区的安全性。本文研究了双向四车道高速公路外侧车道封闭的维修作业区的交通特征及交通冲突。利用统计方法，分析了维修作业区不同区域的车速和时距分布，确定了高速公路上游过渡区车辆的排队特征。基于改进的碰撞时间（TTC）模型，对高速公路维修作业区的交通冲突严重程度进行划分。利用负二项分布建立高速公路外车道封闭维修区交通冲突预测模型，并基于平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)验证了交通冲突预测模型的有效性。研究结果表明：当0 < TTC < 1.3 s时，交通冲突为严重冲突；当 1.3 s < TTC 时，交通冲突为非严重冲突。此外，交通冲突预测模型具有较高的准确性，警戒区和上游过渡区的MAPE分别为10.8%和5.0%。研究结果表明：当0 < TTC < 1.3 s时，交通冲突为严重冲突；当 1.3 s < TTC 时，交通冲突为非严重冲突。此外，交通冲突预测模型具有较高的准确性，警戒区和上游过渡区的MAPE分别为10.8%和5.0%。研究结果表明：当0 < TTC < 1.3 s时，交通冲突为严重冲突；当 1.3 s < TTC 时，交通冲突为非严重冲突。此外，交通冲突预测模型具有较高的准确性，警戒区和上游过渡区的MAPE分别为10.8%和5.0%。