Recalibrating wind‐speed forecasts using regime‐dependent ensemble model output statistics,Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

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Recalibrating wind‐speed forecasts using regime‐dependent ensemble model output statistics
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-13 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.3806
S. Allen ₁ , C. A. T. Ferro ₁ , F. Kwasniok ₁

Affiliation

Raw output from deterministic numerical weather prediction models is typically subject to systematic biases. Although ensemble forecasts provide invaluable information regarding the uncertainty in a prediction, they themselves often misrepresent the weather that occurs. Given their widespread use, the need for high‐quality wind‐speed forecasts is well‐documented. Several statistical approaches have therefore been proposed to recalibrate ensembles of wind‐speed forecasts, including a heteroscedastic truncated regression approach. An extension to this method that utilises the prevailing atmospheric flow is implemented here in a quasigeostrophic simulation study and on Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) reforecast data, in the hope of alleviating errors owing to changes in the synoptic‐scale atmospheric state. When the wind speed depends strongly on the underlying weather regime, the resulting forecasts have the potential to provide substantial improvements in skill relative to conventional post‐processing techniques. This is particularly pertinent at longer lead times, where there is more improvement to be gained over current methods, and in weather regimes associated with wind speeds that differ greatly from climatology. In order to realise this potential, an accurate prediction of the future atmospheric regime is required.

中文翻译：

使用依赖于体制的集成模型输出统计数据重新校准风速预测

确定性数值天气预报模型的原始输出通常会受到系统偏差的影响。尽管总体预报提供了有关预报中不确定性的宝贵信息，但它们本身常常会误解所发生的天气。考虑到它们的广泛使用，对高质量风速预报的需求已得到充分证明。因此，提出了几种统计方法来重新校准风速预报的集合，包括异方差截断回归方法。在拟地转模拟研究和全球整体预报系统（GEFS）的重新预报数据中，对这种利用主要大气流的方法进行了扩展，以期减轻因天气尺度大气状态变化而引起的误差。当风速在很大程度上取决于潜在的天气状况时，相对于传统的后处理技术，所得到的预报可能会显着提高技能。这在较长的交货时间上尤为重要，因为与目前的方法相比，还有更长的交货时间，并且与风速相关的天气状况与气候学有很大的不同。为了实现这一潜力，需要对未来的大气状况进行准确的预测。在与风速有关的天气状况中，气候与气候有很大不同。为了实现这一潜力，需要对未来的大气状况进行准确的预测。在与风速有关的天气状况中，气候与气候有很大不同。为了实现这一潜力，需要对未来的大气状况进行准确的预测。

更新日期：2020-05-13

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