Based on monitoring of Bearded Vultures over 24 years in the French Pyrenees, we assessed factors explaining temporal and spatial variations in numbers and breeding performance. The number of territorial pairs increased throughout the study period from 16 in 1994 to 44 in 2017. No significant negative trends in mean productivity (fledglings per territorial pair) were detected with increasing population size. Colonization probability increased significantly with breeding population size the previous year and with the regular provision of supplementary food in the territory the winter when colonization occurred. Colonization of new territories simultaneously increased the distribution range and local densities, but we found no effect of number of near neighbours on productivity. Pairs having bred less than 5 years together had a much lower probability of laying clutches, and higher lay rates were observed inside or close to protected areas after accounting for pair‐bond length, so productivity of territories inside protected areas was significantly higher. Nest success decreased with advanced lay date and increased with winter food abundance. Nesting failures in the study area were frequently associated with harsh weather. Additionally, disturbance by human activities was the second most important identified cause of breeding failure. The probability of failing due to disturbance was higher in western areas (where breeding areas are more accessible to humans), outside protected areas, and has increased with time. After a failure due to disturbance, there was a significantly higher probability of not producing a clutch the following year as compared with pairs that had not failed or had failed due to other causes, indicating deferred effects of disturbance. Our results show the benefits of conservation management actions, such as implementation of protected areas or designed supplementary food programmes in winter, to help range expansion. On the other hand, we did not find a significant effect of winter supplementary food on productivity. Management of feeding sites should be adapted to more specific planning, being used only in areas where natural food availability is scarce, avoiding its use close to breeding sites when juveniles disperse, and targeted mainly to help range expansion. Our results also highlight the importance of maintaining or enhancing good populations of wild ungulates and regulating human activities around nesting sites of this threatened species.

中文翻译：

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大比目鱼在法国比利牛斯的种群扩展和繁殖成功：长期种群监测的结果

基于对法国比利牛斯山脉24年来胡兀V的监测，我们评估了解释数量和繁殖性能时空变化的因素。在整个研究期间，区域对的数量从1994年的16个增加到2017年的44个。随着人口规模的增加，未发现平均生产率（每个区域对的雏鸟）有显着的负趋势。定居概率随着前一年繁殖种群数量的增加以及定居发生的冬季在领土上定期提供补充食物而大大增加。新领土的殖民化同时扩大了分布范围和当地密度，但我们发现近邻的数量对生产率没有影响。在一起育种不到5年的成对产卵离合器的可能性要低得多，考虑到成对键的长度，在保护区内或附近的产卵率更高，因此保护区内的生产率显着提高。巢的成功率随着产蛋日期的增加而降低，并随着冬季食物的丰富而增加。研究区域的筑巢失败通常与恶劣的天气有关。此外，人类活动造成的干扰是确定的繁殖失败的第二重要原因。在西部地区（人类更容易进入繁殖区），在保护区之外，由于干扰而导致失败的可能性更高，并且随着时间的推移而增加。因干扰而失败后，与未失效或由于其他原因失效的齿轮对相比，第二年不生产离合器的可能性要高得多，这表明干扰的延迟影响。我们的结果显示了保护管理措施的好处，例如在冬季实施保护区或设计补充食品计划，以帮助扩大范围。另一方面，我们没有发现冬季补充食品对生产率的显着影响。饲养场所的管理应适应于更具体的计划，仅在天然食物匮乏的地区使用，避免在幼虫散布时在繁殖场所附近使用，其主要目的是帮助扩大范围。