Global anthropogenic changes are significantly impacting the ecology and evolution of many species. Among temperate taxa, changes to reproductive phenology as a result of warming springs are apparent. However, how such responses to abiotic change interact with biotic impacts resulting from human management interventions are less clear. Here we examine the response of a range of breeding metrics (laying date, clutch size, hatching and fledging success) to interactions between climatic variables and changes in conspecific density (and hence intraspecific competition) resulting from changes in nestbox provision. Using a 37‐year dataset on the Great Tit Parus major we found little evidence for interacting effects of these two drivers. Instead we found that either climatic or competitive effects were the key influence on different metrics. Annual mean laying date substantially advanced with a warming climate, whereas clutch size, hatching success and fledging success were significantly inversely associated with conspecific density. Annual variance in clutch size and hatching success increased weakly with measures of conspecific density, but there was no association between either climatic or density measures and the annual variance in laying date or fledging success. Increasing conspecific densities therefore resulted in years with lower, but more variable, reproductive rates. These results highlight the importance of adaptive provisioning of nestboxes to enhance reproductive output of hole‐nesting birds regardless of climate‐induced phenological change. Such management is likely to be appropriate for assisting with sustaining populations responding to a changing climate.

中文翻译：

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人为改变下的筑巢结果–气候变化和巢箱供应对大山雀繁殖的影响

全球人为变化正在极大地影响许多物种的生态和进化。在温带生物分类中，由于春季变暖，生殖物候发生了明显变化。但是，这种对非生物变化的反应如何与人类管理干预产生的生物影响相互作用尚不清楚。在这里，我们研究了一系列育种指标（产蛋日期，离合器尺寸，孵化和成年成功）对气候变量与巢箱供应变化引起的同种密度变化（以及种内竞争）之间相互作用的响应。在Great Tit Parus major上使用37年的数据集我们几乎没有证据表明这两种驱动因素相互影响。相反，我们发现气候或竞争影响是对不同指标的关键影响。随着气候的变暖，年平均产蛋日显着延长，而离合器的大小，孵化成功和成雏成功与同种密度显着相反。随同规格密度的测量，离体大小和孵化成功率的年度变化几乎没有增加，但是气候或密度测量与产蛋日期或成雏成功率的年度变化之间没有关联。因此，同种密度的增加导致年份的生殖率降低，但变化更大。这些结果突显了自适应调配巢箱的重要性，以提高巢穴鸟的繁殖产量，而不受气候引起的物候变化的影响。这种管理很可能适合协助维持人口对气候变化的响应。